Evaluating simplistic methods to understand current distributions and forecast distribution changes under climate change scenarios: an example with coypu (Myocastor coypus)

Abstract

Citation: Catherine S Jarnevich CS, Young NE, Sheffels TR, Carter J, Sytsma MD, Talbert C (2017) Evaluating simplistic methods to understand current distributions and forecast distribution changes under climate change scenarios: an example with coypu (Myocastor coypus). NeoBiota 32: 107-125. https://doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.32.8884 AbstractInvasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Catherine S Jarnevich et al. / NeoBiota 32: 107-125 (2017) 108 coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions. RESEARCH ARTICLE Advancing research on alien species and biological invasions A peer-reviewed open-access journal NeoBiota

The potential current distribution of the coypu (Myocastor coypus) in Europe and climate change induced shifts in the near future

“…Scheide (2013) mentions increasing mortality rates of coypu at high temperatures, which would be in accordance with our finding of decreasing suitability in warming arid regions. In addition, Jarnevich et al (2017) found support for upper thermal tolerance thresholds of the species. Decreasing suitability on the Iberian peninsula supports the findings of Gallardo and Capdevila (2018) which conducted a risk analysis for Spanish national parks using climate scenarios for 2050 and 2070; they predicted slight to medium decrease of suitability for the coypu in the majority of cases.…”

“…The same applies to Portugal, from where occurrences are not known either Leonard 2002, Tsiamis et al 2017). We did not include data from the coypu's native range, because there are only few spatially explicit records available, as already pointed out by Jarnevich et al (2017).…”

“…One widely used approach to reveal potential distributions of invasive alien species is via species distribution models (SDMs), which correlate a species' occurrence in geographical space with environmental variables in order to predict its potential distribution through spatial and temporal extrapolation (Elith and Leathwick 2009, Václavík and Meentemeyer 2009, Franklin 2010, Jiménez-Valverde et al 2011. Although some studies have applied SDMs to the coypu (Bertolino and Ingegno 2009, Scheide 2013, Farashi and Najafabadi 2015, Hong et al 2015, Jarnevich et al 2017, a detailed investigation on a pan-European scale, taking into account land cover, bioclimatic and socioeconomic factors, is yet missing.…”

Climate change and nutria range expansion in the Eastern United States

“…Cold winter temperatures have been suggested as a primary factor limiting distribution of nutria (Gosling et al , Doncaster and Micol ). Jarnevich et al () developed a broad‐scale model of nutria habitat based on the number of months with freezing temperatures. Nutria may be able to tolerate cold winter temperatures except when water bodies remain frozen for extended time periods, which would increase mortality rates because of limited access to food resources (Ehrich ).…”

Seven years of NeoBiota – the times, were they a changin’?

“…Saltmarsh et al (2016) published an analysis on the distribution and abundance of exotic earthworms in Alaskan forests. A combination of ecophysiological models with a correlative model to project coypu (Myocastor coypus) distribution under climate change was presented by Jarnevich et al (2017). Tabak et al (2015) modelled the distribution of Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) on offshore islands in the Falkland Islands.…”