Evaluating Simulated Microphysics during OLYMPEX Using GPM Satellite Observations

Conrick, Robert; Mass, Clifford F.

doi:10.1175/jas-d-18-0271.1

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Systematic cold biases in both experiments for the LF MW channel is beyond the scope of this study but needs further investigation, and may be related to biases in the microphysics scheme, as the Thompson et al. ( 2008 ) microphysics scheme is known to underpredict rainwater (e.g., Conrick & Mass, 2019 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…However, both experiments' analyses noticeably underestimated the amount and areal extent of the liquid hydrometeors, indicated by the cooler-than-observed LF MW BTs. Systematic cold biases in both experiments for the LF MW channel is beyond the scope of this study but needs further investigation, and may be related to biases in the microphysics scheme, as the Thompson et al (2008) microphysics scheme is known to underpredict rainwater (e.g., Conrick & Mass, 2019).…”

Section: Comparison Of Enkf Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ensemble‐Based Assimilation of Satellite All‐Sky Microwave Radiances Improves Intensity and Rainfall Predictions for Hurricane Harvey (2017)

Zhang

Sieron

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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Tropical cyclones (TCs; see Appendix A for a list of acronyms) are among the most devastating natural disasters in the tropics and mid-latitudes. They make for a triple-threat of wind damage, surge inundation, and inland/freshwater flooding, the last of which is a leading cause of fatalities in the United States from TCs (Rappaport, 2014). Accurate predictions of TCs are valuable to society because they facilitate targeted and efficient preparations for mitigating the loss of life and property.While forecasts of TC track and intensity have been continually improving over recent decades (e.g., Cangialosi et al., 2020;DeMaria et al., 2014), one important remaining challenge is accurate prediction of hazardous TC precipitation (Kidder et al., 2005). Hazardous TC precipitation events are difficult to predict because such events often result from hard-to-predict TC rain bands (e.g., Hurricane Harvey (2017); Blake & Zelinsky, 2018) and

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Comparison Of Enkf Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensemble‐Based Assimilation of Satellite All‐Sky Microwave Radiances Improves Intensity and Rainfall Predictions for Hurricane Harvey (2017)

Zhang

Sieron

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…In addition, the corresponding vertical profiles of ice-phase hydrometeors (ice and snow) in ERA5 are close to those retrieved from TRMM/GPM while the rain water content is less than that from TRMM/GPM (Figures 1i-l), consistent with the horizontal distribution in Figures 1a-h. It should be noted that the hydrometeors retrieved from satellite observation contain biases as well and they merely used as a reference (Conrick and Mass, 2019;Wu et al, 2021), so the cloud properties produced in the ERA5 are generally reliable but the uncertainties still need to be cautioned. Also, Figure 1m,n shows the comparisons of 24-hr maximum wind speed change during the RI stage in landfalling Super TYs over the WNP region in summer and autumn (cases defined in Section 3) from ERA5 and JTWC.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intensity and microphysical properties surrounding the rapid intensification in landfalling Super Typhoons over China during the summer and autumn seasons

Deng

Zhao

Xue

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study investigates the seasonal intensity variabilities of typhoons (TYs) over the western North Pacific that made landfall in the mainland China during the summer (June-August) and autumn (September-November) seasons for the period of 1979-2017. Using the latest climate reanalysis dataset (ERA5), cloud microphysical properties surrounding the rapid intensification (RI) period within the Super TYs (the maximum wind speed exceeding 51 ms −1 ) are explored to verify whether there exists microphysical precursor in TY intensity change like RI. The major results are: (a) The total number of landfalling TYs in summer is 188, almost two times of the number in autumn, and 25.5% of them can reach the Super TYs category, while 39.5% of the

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“…WRF forecasts predicted significantly larger amounts of spillover precipitation in the Elwha basin than the PRISM normal. However, the WRF forecasts are imperfect: WRF underestimated precipitation by up to 100 mm at OLYMPEX gauge locations around the Quinault basin during larger storms (Conrick and Mass, 2019a). Additionally, the OLYMPEX campaign only studied a single wet season which may not have been representative of longer-term average precipitation.…”

Section: Long-term Measurements Of Rain-shadow Strengthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacier dynamics across precipitation gradients: Can ice-elevation feedbacks overcome the rain shadow in the Olympic Mountains, USA?

Margason

Anders

Conrick

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Glacier extent is known to be sensitive to climate variability through time. The impact of spatial variability in climate on glaciers has been much less studied. The Olympic Mountains of Washington State, USA, experience a pronounced precipitation gradient with modern annual precipitation ranging between ~6.5 meters on the high west-facing slopes to ~0.5 meters in the northeast lowlands. In the Quinault valley, on the west side of the range, a glacier extended onto the coastal plain reaching a maximum position during the early Wisconsin Episode glaciation. There is no evidence of a large Elwha glacier extending into the northeast lowlands at that time. We hypothesize that the asymmetry in past glacier extent was driven by spatial variability in precipitation. To evaluate this hypothesis, we first constrain the past precipitation gradient, and then model glacier extent. We explore variability in observed and modelled precipitation gradients over timescales from 6 hours to ~100 years. Across three data sets, basin-averaged precipitation in the Elwha is 54 % of that in the Quinault, with variability of less than 15 % at the annual timescale. Specifically, this ratio does not consistently vary with regional climate patterns. On average, modelled 6-hour accumulated precipitation in the Elwha is 78 % of that in the Quinault during a winter season, with a few low-precipitation time periods exhibiting a flatter or even reversed precipitation gradient. Overall, our analysis does not suggest a mechanism for increasing the precipitation gradient, but overwhelmingly indicates spatially coherent variability in precipitation across the peninsula. We conclude that the past precipitation gradient was likely similar to the modern gradient. We use a one-dimensional glacier flowline model, driven by sea-level summer temperature and annual precipitation to approximate glacier extent in the Quinault and Elwha basins. We find several equilibrium states for the Quinault glacier at the mapped maximum position within paleoclimate constraints for cooling and drying, relative to today. We assume the Elwha remained drier than the Quinault, and model Elwha extent for the climates of the Quinault equilibria. At the warm end of the paleoclimate constraint (10.5 °C), the Elwha remains a small valley glacier in the high headwaters. Yet, for the cooler end of the allowable paleoclimate (7 °C), the Elwha glacier advances to a narrow notch in the valley. As the ice is forced to flow through a smaller cross-section, it thickens, triggering an ice-elevation feedback. This feedback leads to rapid extension of the Elwha glacier to elevations only ~100 meters above those reached by the Quinault. While there is uncertainty in the glacial record of the Elwha, it is unlikely that such a large glacier existed during the most recent glaciation. Therefore, we suggest that the last glacial maximum climate was more likely to have been within the warm end of the paleoclimate range. Alternatively, spatially variable drivers of ablation including differences in cloudiness could have contributed to asymmetry in glacier extent. Future research to constrain past precipitation gradients and evaluate their impact on glacier dynamics is needed to better interpret the climatic significance of past glaciation and to predict future response of glaciers to climate change.

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Evaluating Simulated Microphysics during OLYMPEX Using GPM Satellite Observations

Cited by 12 publications

References 41 publications

Ensemble‐Based Assimilation of Satellite All‐Sky Microwave Radiances Improves Intensity and Rainfall Predictions for Hurricane Harvey (2017)

Ensemble‐Based Assimilation of Satellite All‐Sky Microwave Radiances Improves Intensity and Rainfall Predictions for Hurricane Harvey (2017)

Intensity and microphysical properties surrounding the rapid intensification in landfalling Super Typhoons over China during the summer and autumn seasons

Glacier dynamics across precipitation gradients: Can ice-elevation feedbacks overcome the rain shadow in the Olympic Mountains, USA?

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