Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Potential Distribution of Pine Wood Nematode (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) in China

Abstract

Bursaphelenchus xylophilus is a pest that interferes with the health of forests and hinders the development of the forestry industry, and its spread is influenced by changes in abiotic factors and human activities. The potential distribution areas of B. xylophilus in China under four shared-economic pathways were predicted using the optimized MaxEnt model (version 3.4.3), combining data from a variety of environmental variables: (1) prediction of natural environmental variables predicted under current climate models; (2) prediction of natural environmental variables + human activities under current climate models; and (3) prediction of natural environmental variables under the future climate models (2050s and 2070s). Meanwhile, whether the niche of B. xylophilus has changed over time is analyzed. The results showed that human activities, precipitation in the driest month, annual precipitation, and elevation had significant effects on the distribution of B. xylophilus. In the current conditions, human activities greatly reduced the survival area of B. xylophilus, and its suitable distribution area was mainly concentrated in the southwestern and central regions of China. Under the influence of climate change in the future, the habitat of B. xylophilus will gradually spread to the northeast. In addition, the ecological niche overlap analysis showed that B. xylophilus in future climate was greater than 0.74. This study provides important information for understanding the ecological adaptation and potential risk of B. xylophilus, which can help guide the decision making of pest control and forest protection.