Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on ex-vessel prices using time-series analysis

Abstract

The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and subsequent lockdown measures have impacted economies and industries worldwide. The fisheries industry witnessed a sharp decline in demand and a slump in fish prices due to its dependence on the food service industry. It is important to quantitatively assess those fish species affected most and the extent of the pandemic’s impact on them, to take specific countermeasures. We propose a time-series analysis as an alternative to the current practice of using ad hoc year-on-year comparisons. Although the pandemic makes it difficult to construct a counterfactual approach due to the lack of an appropriate control group, we use time-series forecasting to simulate normal conditions using pre-pandemic data. In Tokyo, the unit price of fish species that were negatively impacted by the food services industry dropped by 12.65% to 14.64%, and by 26.08% to 28.22% after the declaration of a state of emergency. Seasonality, short weekly cycles, and short-term market trends are factors that affect the price of fish. Species-specific impact estimates related to the COVID-19 pandemic can allow policymakers to implement recovery measures in a more targeted and effective manner. The results of our analysis can increase fishers’ and policymakers’ awareness of the usefulness of economic analyses and incentivize them to release data to establish a system to accumulate and analyze data strategically for urgent and appropriate interventions in the fisheries industry.

The impacts of COVID-19 on seafood prices in Japan: A comparison between cheap and luxury products

“…This indicates that at least in the short run there was a period where a shift from cheap to luxury seafood occurred as more people began to eat seafood at restaurants as the pandemic calmed down. This contrastive result between the cheap and luxury result is somewhat similar to the findings of Abe et al [ 44 ] suggesting that high-end fish such as red seabream and black throat seaperch are in high demand in luxury restaurants that have been greatly affected by the declaration of a state of emergency, while fish such as Japanese amberjack, a general consumer preference, was seemingly less affected.…”

Evaluating and Predicting the Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Manufacturing Sales within South Africa

“…Abe et al [33] used time series analysis to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on ex-vessel pricing in Tokyo's (Japan) fisheries industry. The study concluded that the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the fisheries industry due to its reliance on the domestic food service sector.…”