Evaluating the Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles’ Market Penetration on a Complex Urban Freeway during Autonomous Vehicles’ Transition Period

Abstract

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) have been a rapidly emerging phenomenon in recent years, with some automated features already available in vehicles. AVs are expected to potentially revolutionize the existing inefficient state of urban transportation and be a step closer to environmental sustainability. This study focuses on simulation modeling in assessing the potential effects of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and on mobility and safety by developing a framework model based on traffic microsimulation for a real network located in Al-Madinah, Saudi Arabia. The market penetration rates (MPRs) will not reach 100% in the near future; instead, penetration will progressively increase. As a result, in our study, we investigated the potential effect of AV technology in five different AV market penetration rates: 0% (baseline), 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%. The results suggest that Avs significantly improve the network’s safety and operational performance at high penetration rates. Specifically, estimated vehicle delays decreased by 26%, 34.4%, 63.7%, and 74.2% for 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% AV penetration rates, respectively. Finally, we think this study will help decisionmakers over in the long-term in their attempts to achieve sustainable development through the optimal integration of innovative and novel technologies.

Influences of Autonomous Vehicles on Sustainability: A Systematic Literature Review

“…For example, major efficiency gains can be achieved on roads and motorways. It is assumed that the capacity of motorways can be increased by a factor of 3.2 if there is 100% market penetration of autonomous vehicles (Abdeen et al, 2022). However, it should be noted that every city has different needs when introducing autonomous vehicles, and there is no universal solution.…”

“…Mokonyama et al (2022) Economic Increase efficiency in the logistics sector. Abdeen et al (2022) Economic Capacity increase of motorways.…”

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“…For example, major efficiency gains can be achieved on roads and motorways. It is assumed that the capacity of motorways can be increased by a factor of 3.2 if there is 100% market penetration of autonomous vehicles (Abdeen et al, 2022). However, it should be noted that every city has different needs when introducing autonomous vehicles, and there is no universal solution.…”

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“…Studies like these provide a general estimate of the types of crashes that could be mitigated or avoided with the implementation of these sensors and technologies, but each crash is unique, and the actual impact of LOS and CVT may be affected by additional factors. It becomes more difficult to accurately predict the safety impact of these systems on the microscopic scale [ 11 ]. One way to do so is to evaluate the performance of current ADAS systems (which contain LOS sensors).…”