Evaluating the performance of morphological models

Sutherland, James; Peet, A. H.; Soulsby, R.L.

doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2004.07.015

Cited by 236 publications

(212 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Sutherland et al 2004). It compares the mean square difference between the prediction and observation with the mean square difference between baseline prediction and observation so that The measured beach/dune erosion shown in Fig.…”

Section: Results and Discussion Part 1: 2d Xbeachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling storm responses on a high-energy coastline with XBeach

Williams

Esteves

Rochford

2015

Model. Earth Syst. Environ.

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The XBeach model has been used to simulate the morphological impacts of storms on sandy and gravel beaches. Taking as a case study Rossbeigh Spit located on the high-energy coast of western Ireland, the study reported here tests the capacity of XBeach to reproduce barrier breaching during a storm in December 2008. It demonstrates that predictions of the breaching event agree reasonably well with observations. However, the main focus of the paper is to establish using the model results, sitespecific critical wave and water level conditions giving rise to dune erosion, overwashing and breaching. By deriving simple-to-use expressions to define hydrodynamic thresholds the study advances the ability to predict the impacts of infrequent and rarely observed storm events and is considered to provide useful coastal management tool for assessing the vulnerability of sandy barriers to breaching high-energy during storms.

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Section: Results and Discussion Part 1: 2d Xbeachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling storm responses on a high-energy coastline with XBeach

Williams

Esteves

Rochford

2015

Model. Earth Syst. Environ.

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“…After calibration, the morphological model attained a median skill score across the surveyed area of 0.35, a figure considered 'Good' [32]. In describing the location and geometry of the surf zone storm bar, in most places the skill score exceeded 0.7, a rating considered 'Excellent' (Figure 4).…”

Section: Model Verificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A skill score was calculated for each mesh element within the survey area so the spatial variance in model error could be assessed. The scoring method and classification system described in Sutherland et al [32] was used.…”

Section: Model Calibrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The June 2016 Australian East Coast Low: Importance of Wave Direction for Coastal Erosion Assessment

Mortlock

Goodwin

McAneney

et al. 2017

Water

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Abstract:In June 2016, an unusual East Coast Low storm affected some 2000 km of the eastern seaboard of Australia bringing heavy rain, strong winds and powerful wave conditions. While wave heights offshore of Sydney were not exceptional, nearshore wave conditions were such that beaches experienced some of the worst erosion in 40 years. Hydrodynamic modelling of wave and current behaviour as well as contemporaneous sand transport shows the east to north-east storm wave direction to be the major determinant of erosion magnitude. This arises because of reduced energy attenuation across the continental shelf and the focussing of wave energy on coastal sections not equilibrated with such wave exposure under the prevailing south-easterly wave climate. Narrabeen-Collaroy, a well-known erosion hot spot on Sydney's Northern Beaches, is shown to be particularly vulnerable to storms from this direction because the destructive erosion potential is amplified by the influence of the local embayment geometry. We demonstrate the magnified erosion response that occurs when there is bi-directionality between an extreme wave event and preceding modal conditions and the importance of considering wave direction in extreme value analyses.

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“…It is positive when the variation between the model and observations is less than the variability in the observations alone. Weather forecasters find that useful predictions have BSS40.2 (Sutherland et al, 2004). The Willmott index of agreement ranges from zero (no model skill) to one (perfect agreement).…”

Section: Sensitivity Of Model-data Comparison At B6 To Model Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…5). Skill was estimated using the Brier skill score (BSS; Brier and Allen, 1951;Sutherland et al, 2004), Willmott's (1981) index of agreement d 2 , and the squared correlation coefficient r 2 . The BSS was calculated as…”

Section: Sensitivity Of Model-data Comparison At B6 To Model Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sediment transport on the Palos Verdes shelf, California

Férré

Sherwood

Wiberg

2010

Continental Shelf Research

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a b s t r a c t Sediment transport and the potential for erosion or deposition have been investigated on the Palos Verdes (PV) and San Pedro shelves in southern California to help assess the fate of an effluent-affected deposit contaminated with DDT and PCBs. Bottom boundary layer measurements at two 60-m sites in spring 2004 were used to set model parameters and evaluate a one-dimensional (vertical) model of local, steady-state resuspension, and suspended-sediment transport. The model demonstrated skill (Brier scores up to 0.75) reproducing the magnitudes of bottom shear stress, current speeds, and suspended-sediment concentrations measured during an April transport event, but the model tended to underpredict observed rotation in the bottom-boundary layer, possibly because the model did not account for the effects of temperature-salinity stratification. The model was run with wave input estimated from a nearby buoy and current input from four to six years of measurements at thirteen sites on the 35-and 65-m isobaths on the PV and San Pedro shelves. Sediment characteristics and erodibility were based on gentle wet-sieve analysis and erosion-chamber measurements. Modeled flow and sediment transport were mostly alongshelf toward the northwest on the PV shelf with a significant offshore component. The 95th percentile of bottom shear stresses ranged from 0.09 to 0.16 Pa at the 65-m sites, and the lowest values were in the middle of the PV shelf, near the Whites Point sewage outfalls where the effluent-affected layer is thickest. Long-term mean transport rates varied from 0.9 to 4.8 metric tons m À 1 yr À 1 along the 65-m isobaths on the PV shelf, and were much higher at the 35-m sites. Gradients in modeled alongshore transport rates suggest that, in the absence of a supply of sediment from the outfalls or PV coast, erosion at rates of $ 0.2 mm yr À 1 might occur in the region southeast of the outfalls. These rates are small compared to some estimates of background natural sedimentation rates ( $ 5 mm yr À 1 ), but do not preclude higher localized rates near abrupt transitions in sediment characteristics. However, low particle settling velocities and strong currents result in transport length-scales that are long relative to the narrow width of the PV shelf, which combined with the significant offshore component in transport, means that transport of resuspended sediment towards deep water is as likely as transport along the axis of the effluent-affected deposit.Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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Evaluating the performance of morphological models

Cited by 236 publications

References 20 publications

Modelling storm responses on a high-energy coastline with XBeach

Modelling storm responses on a high-energy coastline with XBeach

The June 2016 Australian East Coast Low: Importance of Wave Direction for Coastal Erosion Assessment

Sediment transport on the Palos Verdes shelf, California

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