Evaluating the performance of regional-scale photochemical modeling systems: Part I—meteorological predictions

Hogrefe, Christian; Rao, S. Trivikrama; Kasibhatla, P. S.; Kallos, George; Tremback, Craig J.; Hao, Winston; Olerud, Don; Xiu, Aijun; McHenry, John N.; Alapaty, Kiran

doi:10.1016/s1352-2310(01)00182-0

Cited by 94 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 16 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…It indicates a strong diurnal influence on air temperature with the intra-day component differing the most from the observed values. Though one would expect the intra-day component to have larger underpredictions than this result [11], the use of very high resolution (1-km) grid and high resolution meteorological analysis data could have been one of the factors behind this improvement. The wind speed is also being influenced by diurnal forcings but the contribution of intra-day component is nearly 6 times than that of air temperature.…”

Section: Time Scale Analysismentioning

confidence: 86%

“…For ozone as well as meteorological variables, the relative contribution of the different temporal components to the total time series can be examined from the variances of the components [11]. It can assist in examining the accuracy of the model in predicting the individual time scale components that are associated with different physical processes.…”

Section: Time Scale Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

High-resolution air quality modelling and time scale analysis of ozone and NO_xin Osaka, Japan

Shrestha¹,

Kondo²,

Kaga³

et al. 2008

WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The ozone pollution in the Osaka region is mainly influenced by the long-range transport of tropospheric ozone or its precursors from outside in winter but nearly 50% of the total ozone is chemically produced by regional emissions in summertime. The effects of the regional transport and the chemical production of ozone by regional emissions in summertime can be analysed by spectral decomposition of the time series and studying the inherent intra-day, diurnal and longer-term time scales in the time series of ozone and NOx. The relative contributions of these time scale components associated with different physical processes are also used to evaluate the performance of air quality models in simulating ozone and NOx. We used the Japanese national emission data with resolution of 10-km and 1-km resolution in the MM5-CMAQ modelling system for the nested simulation in Osaka with the finest domain having 1-km grid size. Among the different time scales, diurnal time scale has the highest correlation for ozone, and longer time scale has the highest correlation for NO and NO2. Spatial variation in the simulation of NOx is evident from the study of correlation of diurnal and longer-term time scales, with higher correlations in the longer-term time scale. Overall, the time scale analysis of ozone and NOx time series has proved useful for detailed quantitative analysis of the air quality modelling in Osaka.

show abstract

Section: Time Scale Analysismentioning

confidence: 86%

Section: Time Scale Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

High-resolution air quality modelling and time scale analysis of ozone and NO_xin Osaka, Japan

Shrestha¹,

Kondo²,

Kaga³

et al. 2008

WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Fourteen vertical layers extend from the surface to approximately 4 km in the UAM-V model. Additional details on the setup of these RAMS simulations performed about a decade ago are provided in Hogrefe et al 23 and references therein.…”

Section: Database and Methods Of Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Rethinking the Assessment of Photochemical Modeling Systems in Air Quality Planning Applications

Hogrefe

Civerolo

Hao

et al. 2008

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency provides guidelines for demonstrating that future 8-hr ozone (O 3 ) design values will be at or below the National Ambient Air Quality Standards on the basis of the application of photochemical modeling systems to simulate the effect of emission reductions. These guidelines also require assessment of the model simulation against observations. In this study, we examined the link between the simulated relative responses to emission reductions and model performance as measured by operational evaluation metrics, a part of the model evaluation required by the guidance, which often is the cornerstone of model evaluation in many practical applications. To this end, summertime O 3 concentrations were simulated with two modeling systems for both 2002 and 2009 emission conditions. One of these two modeling systems was applied with two different parameterizations for vertical mixing. Comparison of the simulated base-case 8-hr daily maximum O 3 concentrations showed marked model-to-model differences of up to 20 ppb, resulting in significant differences in operational model performance measures. In contrast, only relatively minor differences were detected in the relative response of O 3 concentrations to emission reductions, resulting in differences of a few ppb or less in estimated future year design values. These findings imply that operational model evaluation metrics provide little insight into the reliability of the actual model application in the regulatory setting (i.e., the estimation of relative changes). In agreement with the guidance, it is argued that more emphasis should be placed on the diagnostic evaluation of O 3 -precursor relationships and on the development and application of dynamic and retrospective evaluation approaches in which the response of the model to changes in meteorology and emissions is compared with observed changes. As an example, simulated relative O 3 changes between 1995 and 2007 are compared against observed changes. It is suggested that such retrospective studies can serve as the starting point for targeted diagnostic studies in which individual aspects of the modeling system are evaluated and refined to improve the characterization of observed changes. INTRODUCTIONDespite continuing reductions in ambient levels of ozone (O 3 ) in large parts of the eastern United States, 1 many areas still continue to exceed the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for 8-hr daily maximum O 3 concentrations. As a consequence, nonattainment areas are required to develop emission control strategies aimed at bringing these areas into compliance. To demonstrate that such emission control strategies indeed will lead to compliance with the NAAQS, states need to develop State Implementation Plans (SIPs), and a crucial part of these plans is the application of a photochemical modeling system to quantify the expected benefit of planned emission reductions on ambient O 3 concentrations. Detailed procedures for performing this model-based attainment demons...

show abstract

“…Since ozone measurements are performed at discrete intervals, the highest and lowest frequencies that can be estimated for any particular time-series are determined by the sampling interval and the length of data record, respectively. The choice of different frequency bands used by Hogrefe et al [7,8] and Biswaset et al [9] was based on the recorded power spectrum and on a priori knowledge about different physical processes.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorologically adjusted ground-level ozone trend at the Preila background site

Byčenkienė¹

2008

Lithuanian J. Phys.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Using a multiple low-pass Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filter, the separation of the original signal based on ozone and temperature data into long-term (annual), seasonal, and short-term (synoptic scale) components was applied for removing the effects of meteorological factors at the Preila background station (Lithuania). Meteorologically adjusted hourly ozone concentration data revealed long-term variations. Based on this approach a decline of 0.36 µg m −3 yr −1 in the meteorologically adjusted ozone concentration was determined for the period of 1999-2004.

show abstract

Evaluating the performance of regional-scale photochemical modeling systems: Part I—meteorological predictions

Cited by 94 publications

References 16 publications

High-resolution air quality modelling and time scale analysis of ozone and NO_xin Osaka, Japan

High-resolution air quality modelling and time scale analysis of ozone and NO_xin Osaka, Japan

Rethinking the Assessment of Photochemical Modeling Systems in Air Quality Planning Applications

Meteorologically adjusted ground-level ozone trend at the Preila background site

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Evaluating the performance of regional-scale photochemical modeling systems: Part I—meteorological predictions

Cited by 94 publications

References 16 publications

High-resolution air quality modelling and time scale analysis of ozone and NOxin Osaka, Japan

High-resolution air quality modelling and time scale analysis of ozone and NOxin Osaka, Japan

Rethinking the Assessment of Photochemical Modeling Systems in Air Quality Planning Applications

Meteorologically adjusted ground-level ozone trend at the Preila background site

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

High-resolution air quality modelling and time scale analysis of ozone and NO_xin Osaka, Japan

High-resolution air quality modelling and time scale analysis of ozone and NO_xin Osaka, Japan