Evaluating the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in non-endemic regions: A dynamic modeling approach

Abstract

Mosquito-borne diseases are spreading into temperate zones, raising concerns about local outbreaks driven by imported cases. Using stochastic methods, we developed a vector-host model to estimate the risk of import-driven autochthonous outbreaks in non-endemic regions. The model explores key factors such as imported cases and vector abundance. Our analysis shows that mosquito population abundance significantly affects the probability and timing of outbreaks. Even with moderate mosquito populations, isolated or clustered outbreaks can be triggered, highlighting the importance of monitoring vector abundance for effective public health planning and interventions.