Evaluating wildfire vulnerability of Mediterranean dwellings using fuzzy logic applied to expert judgement

Abstract

Background. Wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires pose great challenges to firefighting services and there is a growing need for self-protection and the creation of fire-adapted communities. Aim. A tool that can aid homeowners and residents of the Mediterranean WUI was created so that they can identify vulnerabilities present on their properties and consequently reduce them in order to reduce the risk of fires igniting dwellings. Methods. This Vulnerability Assessment Tool is based on a fault tree analysis that includes possible structural vulnerabilities as well as the different ways a fire could spread on a property to finally enter and ignite a dwelling. The probabilities of the different events are obtained from fuzzy preferences of WUI experts. Key results. Our system was tested against real-world data taken from two WUI fires that occurred in 2021 and 2022 in Spain in which several dwellings were affected, with different degrees of damage (minor to major losses). Conclusions. The tool is able to show the vulnerabilities of the properties and to account for differences in building characteristics and vegetation management at the parcel scale. Implications. A planned use of this tool would be key to improving fire resilience at the community level.

Ignition Locations and Simplified Design Guidelines for Enhancing the Resilience of Dwellings against Wildland Fires

“…Most of these studies are a reflection of contributing factors to vulnerability and their respective inclusion in recent vulnerability assessments, but without any explicit recommendations of fireproof construction guidelines to be used by future civil engineers. In any case, some of these studies were very important, and in the meantime, they allowed for new ideas regarding new vulnerability assessment tools for dwellings in the WUI [47][48][49][50] since they relayed "in situ" information and real case studies.…”

“…Therefore, the different wildfire exposures for essential strategic buildings during an emergency are not known. Recently, new studies regarding this thematic mainly for dwellings have been analyzed by using a quantitative vulnerability assessment method and generating structural vulnerability indices [48,49].…”

Analysis of Trends in the Distance of Wildfires from Built-Up Areas in Spain and California (USA): 2007–2015

“…It is increasingly important to examine the economic and social consequences of forest fires. Studies have been conducted on the impact of fires on the economy [18][19][20][21][22], employment [23,24], and the cost of damage to infrastructure [25][26][27][28], buildings [29][30][31], and homes [32][33][34][35][36], and also how different building materials and the location on the perimeter of buildings respond to fire [37][38][39][40]. All of these works, with varying objectives, methodologies, and areas of study, enable us to partially comprehend the causality and consequences of fires.…”