Evaluation and Future Projection of Extreme Climate Events in the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China Using Ensembled CMIP5 Models Data

Niu, Zigeng; Feng, Lan; Chen, Xinxin; Yi, Xiuping

doi:10.3390/ijerph18116029

Cited by 13 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 92 publications

(114 reference statements)

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“…In addition, the precipitation variability will be smaller in high-elevation regions, while the fluctuations in temperature in high elevations is expected to be larger than fluctuations in low elevations [59]. As reported by Niu et al [42], warming extremes were projected to increase while cold events were projected to decrease on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. The above descriptions support a portion of results from this study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…The maximum and minimum temperatures have increased significantly at rates of 0.19 • C and 0.37 • C per decade, respectively [41]. A recent study has reported that the magnitude of the changes in extreme climate events in the Yangtze River basin is projected to increase with the increasingly warming climate [42]. These variations have exerted a considerable influence on society and the ecosystem, making climate change one of the most urgent challenges facing the YRB [40].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatio-Temporal Variability in Hydroclimate over the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China

Yang

Bing

2022

Atmosphere

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As global warming produces dramatic climate changes, water management is facing increasingly serious challenges. Given to the process of climate change and its complex effects on watershed hydrology, this paper investigates the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of major climatic factors (i.e., precipitation and temperature) over the upper Yangtze River basin (UYRB), China. The statistical analyses are based on annual and seasonal scales during 1951–2020 with a recorded period of seven decades. The Mann–Kendall nonparametric test and R/S analysis are used to record the temporal trends (past and future) of climate variables; the Pettitt test, standard normal homogeneity test and Buishand test are used to detect the homogeneity in climate series. The sensitivities of the streamflow to climatic parameters are assessed at the watershed scale, especially considering the Three Gorges Dam’s (TGD) effect on changing runoff. The results of the study indicate that the annual precipitation of 29 out of 34 series indicate homogeneity, while 31 out of 34 annual mean temperature series show heterogeneity, with jump points around 1997 in the mean temperature of 20 sites. Detectable changes in precipitation were not observed during 1951–2020; however, the temperature increased significantly in the whole basin on annual and seasonal scales, except for several stations in the eastern part. The magnitude of increase in air temperature in high altitudes (Tibet Plateau) is higher than that in low altitudes (Sichuan Plain) over the last seven decades, and future temperatures continue to sharply increase in high altitudes. The TGD plays an important role in explaining the seasonal variations in streamflow at Yichang station, with streamflow experiencing a sharp increase in winter and spring (dry season) and a decrease in summer and autumn (rainy season) compared to the pre-TGD period. The streamflow variation at an annual scale is mainly regulated by climate fluctuation (variation in precipitation). During the last seven decades, increasing air temperature and decreases in rainfall and runoff signify reduced water resources availability, and the climate tends to be warmer and drier over the basin. The sensitivity of the streamflow to watershed precipitation is higher than that to temperature, with variation in annual rainfall explaining 71% of annual runoff variability.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-Temporal Variability in Hydroclimate over the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China

Yang

Bing

2022

Atmosphere

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“…Many studies have indicated that GCMs is able to simulate some climatic factors on a regional scale (Seneviratne and Hauser, 2020;Quenum et al, 2021;Li et al, 2022). Numerous studies have also shown that the simulation effect of the multimodel ensemble is better than that of a single model, and the simulation uncertainty is smaller (Kim et al, 2020;Almazroui et al, 2021;Niu et al, 2021). Therefore, in this study, we selected 8 models with complete data for the period 1976-2100 in CMIP6 to simulate and project runoff in the SAYR.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Runoff simulation and projection in the source area of the Yellow River using the SWAT model and SSPs scenarios

Jia

Chen

et al. 2022

Front. Environ. Sci.

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The source area of the Yellow River (SAYR) is one of the world´s largest wetlands containing the greatest diversity of high altitude marshlands. For this reason, its response to climate change is extremely significant. As revealed by different studies, the response of hydrological processes to global warming results in high uncertainties and complexities in the water cycle of the SAYR. Thus, understanding and projecting future runoff changes in this region has become increasingly important. In the present investigation, we used runoff and meteorological data of the SAYR from 1976 to 2014 (historical period). In addition, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), land-use, and soil data for the period 1976 to 2100 were used considering three future SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Paths) scenarios of 8 models selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate, project, and analyze potential variations and future runoff of the main hydrological stations (Jimai, Maqu, and Tangnaihai) located in the SAYR. The results showed that: 1) The SWAT model displayed good applicability in historical runoff simulation in the SAYR. A small runoff simulation uncertainty was observed as the simulated value was close to the measured value. 2) Under three different 2021–2100 SSPs scenarios, the yearly discharge of the three hydrological stations located in the SAYR showed an increasing trend with respect to the historical period. Future runoff is mainly affected by precipitation. 3) We compared the 1976–2014 average annual runoff with projected values for the periods 2021–2060 and 2061–2100. With respect to 2021–2060, the lowest and highest increases occurred at Tangnaihai and Maqu Stations in the emission scenarios without (SSP585) and with mitigation (SSP126), respectively. However, the highest and lowest increments at Jimai Station were observed in the intermediate emission (SSP245) and SSP126 scenarios, respectively. Moreover, in 2061–2100, the Maqu and Tangnaihai Stations showed the lowest and highest increments in the SSP585 and SSP245 scenarios, correspondingly. In Jimai Station, the lowest increment occurred in SSP126. The yearly average discharge in the near future will be smaller than that in the far future. Overall, this study provides scientific understanding of future hydrological responses to climate changes in the alpine area. This information can also be of help in the selection of actions for macro-control, planning, and management of water resources, and the protection of wetlands in the SAYR.

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“…e annual average precipitation is about 551.6 mm. e Yellow River Delta is rich in biodiversity and natural resources and has been extensively studied by scholars [34,35].…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Detecting, Monitoring, and Analyzing the Surface Subsidence in the Yellow River Delta (China) Combined with CenterNet Network and SBAS-InSAR

Wang

Liu

et al. 2022

Journal of Spectroscopy

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Long-term industrial activities tend to cause surface subsidence and damage to ground facilities and local ecological environment. Monitoring and analyzing surface subsidence is of great significance to prevent potential disasters. The surface type of the Yellow River Delta in China is complex and there are many industrial activities, so it is necessary to monitor the surface subsidence in this area. Small Baseline Subset InSAR (SBAS-InSAR) can monitor the surface subsidence with millimeter-level accuracy, but it takes a long time to process wide images (Sentinel-1) and is seriously affected by atmospheric errors. To avoid these limitations, we constructed a method combining the CenterNet network and SBAS-InSAR (CNSBAS-InSAR). Firstly, the CenterNet network is used to automatically detect the subsidence areas from the wide differential interferogram formed by two SAR satellite images and determine the location of the subsidence area. Then, the SBAS-InSAR monitoring is performed on the detected multiple subsidence areas. Finally, the small-scale subsidence results are obtained. In this study, based on 24 Sentinel-1A satellite images acquired from 10 January 2018 to 24 December 2018, nine subsidence areas in Yellow River Delta were detected. Three of them had long-term surface subsidence. They were located in Zhanhua District, Xianhe Town, and Hongguang Village, respectively. This paper focuses on analyzing these three areas. The maximum subsidence rate of Zhanhua District, Xianhe Town, and Hongguang Village were −135.21 mm/a, −330.91 mm/a, and −209.68 mm/a, respectively. In addition, the analysis showed that precipitation in the Zhanhua District could effectively slow down the subsidence rate of the area. The subsidence of Xianhe Town threatened the safety of the Shugang Expressway. The subsidence of Hongguang Village caused the safety risks of buildings. The results of this study prove that CNSBAS-InSAR method is reliable for monitoring subsidence areas and it can provide a reference for local construction and protection of Yellow River Delta.

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Evaluation and Future Projection of Extreme Climate Events in the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China Using Ensembled CMIP5 Models Data

Cited by 13 publications

References 92 publications

Spatio-Temporal Variability in Hydroclimate over the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China

Spatio-Temporal Variability in Hydroclimate over the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China

Runoff simulation and projection in the source area of the Yellow River using the SWAT model and SSPs scenarios

Detecting, Monitoring, and Analyzing the Surface Subsidence in the Yellow River Delta (China) Combined with CenterNet Network and SBAS-InSAR

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