Evaluation and prediction of the COVID-19 variations at different input population and quarantine strategies, a case study in Guangdong province, China

Abstract

In this study, an epidemic model was developed to simulate and predict the disease variations of Guangdong province which was focused on the period from Jan 27 to Feb 20, 2020. To explore the impacts of the input population and quarantine strategies on the disease variations at different scenarios, four time points were assumed as Feb 6, Feb 16, Feb 24 and Mar 5 2020. The major results suggest that our model can well capture the disease variations with high accuracy. The simulated peak value of the confirmed cases is 1002 at Feb 10, 2020 which is mostly close to the reported number of 1007 at Feb 9, 2020. The disease will become extinction with peak value of 1397 at May 11, 2020. Moreover, the increased numbers of the input population can mainly shorten the disease extinction days and the increased percentages of the exposed individuals of the input population increase the number of cumulative confirmed cases at a small percentage. Increasing the input population and decreasing the quarantine strategy together around the time point of the peak value of the confirmed cases, may lead to the second outbreak.

Global strategies and effectiveness for COVID-19 prevention through contact tracing, screening, quarantine, and isolation: a systematic review

“…The included studies comprised of 9 observational [ 14 – 22 ] and 13 modeling studies [ 23 – 35 ]. With duplicates (repeated count), 3 of the studies assessed the overall prevention strategies [ 21 – 23 ], 5 assessed the effect of contact tracing [ 14 , 24 , 25 , 33 , 35 ], 2 assessed screening strategies [ 17 , 34 ], 12 assessed the effect of quarantine [ 15 , 23 – 31 ], and 6 assessed the effect of isolation [ 17 , 25 , 26 , 31 , 33 , 35 ]. The sample sizes in the studies varied from hundreds to millions.…”

“…Each new case requires an average of 36 individuals to be traced, with 8.7% of cases having more than 100 close traceable contacts. 2 Author/s and title [ 15 ] Zengyun Hu, Qianqian Cui, Junmei Han. Evaluation and prediction of the COVID-19 variations at different input population and quarantine strategies, a case study in Guangdong province, China Population size ( N ) 113460000 Country China Setting Community based Design Case study Objectives To simulate and predict the disease variations of Guangdong province and to explore the impacts of the input population and quarantine strategies.…”

“…Among the nine observational studies, three of them assessed COVID-19 transmission with the existing prevention measures at a community level in Taiwan, China, and Hong Kong [ 18 – 20 ]. The other two studies assessed the effect of escalating prevention measures at health facilities in China and Hong Kong [ 21 , 22 ], and three studies [ 15 – 17 ] assessed national- and metropolitan-based quarantine strategies and the effect of laboratory-based quarantine in the prevention of COVID-19. The last study evaluated the effect of community-based contact tracing in UK [ 14 ].…”

“…Studies conducted on the effect of quarantine [ 15 – 17 ] found that it can have a massive preventive effect. One of the studies [ 15 ] that assessed the effect of quarantine in different populations and quarantine strategies found that it should be integrated with input population reduction (travel restriction), and the other study [ 16 ] that assessed the effects of metropolitan-wide quarantine on the Spread of COVID-19 in China found that quarantine would prevent 79.27% (75.10–83.45%) of deaths and 87.08% (84.68–89.49%) of infections. Also, the other researcher [ 17 ] evidenced that laboratory-based screenings accomplished within hours can enhance the efficiency of quarantine.…”

2019-nCoV Transmission in Hubei Province, China: Stochastic and Deterministic Analyses

“…e 2019-nCoV outbreak has received considerable attention from domestic and international scholars [7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. Clinical evidence of 2019-nCoV refers to [14][15][16].…”