Evaluation and projection of precipitation and temperature in a coastal climatic transitional zone in China based on CMIP6 GCMs

Li, Xin; Fang, Guohua; Wei, Jianhui; Arnault, Joël; Laux, Patrick; Wen, Xin; Kunstmann, Harald

doi:10.1007/s00382-023-06781-z

Cited by 11 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 109 publications

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“…This index incorporates the regional‐scale circulation conditions of the 500‐hPa zonal winds (U500) and 850‐hPa meridional winds around Beijing and the overlying atmospheric stability conditions of near‐surface warming and upper‐tropospheric cooling. We notice that numerous studies have proposed reasons for the projected changes in surface variables for future periods from the perspective of changes in circulation conditions (e.g., Chen et al, 2020; Chen et al, 2023; Li et al, 2023). For instance, the summer western Pacific and Indian anticyclones in the last decade of the 21st Century are projected to move northwestward, enhancing precipitation generation over Southeast China (Li et al, 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

“…We notice that numerous studies have proposed reasons for the projected changes in surface variables for future periods from the perspective of changes in circulation conditions (e.g., Chen et al, 2020; Chen et al, 2023; Li et al, 2023). For instance, the summer western Pacific and Indian anticyclones in the last decade of the 21st Century are projected to move northwestward, enhancing precipitation generation over Southeast China (Li et al, 2023). Consequently, our circulation‐based approach can shed light on reliable future projections regarding the summertime CDHW frequency over the YRD during the P CN for policymakers, provided that the observed relationships between the compound YRD CDHW frequency and associated circulation conditions can be represented by GCMs (L. Wang et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

“…Two specific periods were defined for the outputs of the CMIP6‐involved GCMs. First, following the IPCC AR6 report (IPCC, 2021), the historical baseline period of 1995–2014 was selected to determine the present‐day climate state, providing a reference period to assess the future changes (Li et al, 2023; Zha et al, 2023; Zhang & Chen, 2022). For convenience, the present‐day period of 1995–2014 was referred to as the P PD .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Global climate models (GCMs) play a fundamental role in projecting the mean and extreme surface variables in China under various shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for different future periods. These variables include wind speed (e.g., Wu et al, 2020; Zha et al, 2023), temperature and precipitation (e.g., Li et al, 2023; Sun et al, 2018; Xu et al, 2022; Yang et al, 2021; Yue et al, 2021), drought (e.g., Su et al, 2021) and haze (e.g., Cai et al, 2017; J. Wang et al, 2022). For example, by using GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 (CMIP6), Yue et al (2021) reported that, in the long term (2081–2100), the Tasmax averaged over the YRB is projected to increase by 1.75, 2.72 and 5.04°C under SSP scenarios SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585, respectively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation and projection of circulation conditions tied to summertime compound drought and heatwave frequency over the Yangtze River Delta, China, for the carbon neutrality period based on CMIP6 GCMs

Wang,

Liang,

Cheng

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Frequent occurrences of compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs) may have considerable adverse impacts on human health and socioeconomic development. To project future summertime CDHWs over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) of China under carbon neutrality (CN) for policymakers, we used nine global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and evaluated and projected circulation conditions tied to the summer YRD CDHW frequency in the boreal summer. The results show that a marked mid‐tropospheric regional‐scale anticyclonic anomaly centred over the East China Sea can be deemed the dominant system linking the more frequent occurrence of YRD CDHWs. Our selected nine CMIP6 GCMs better captured the observed climatological and anomalous spatial circulation patterns connected to the summer YRD CDHW frequency. Moreover, the nine models' multi‐model ensemble mean (9MME) was better than most of the individual models regarding the related climatological circulation simulations. The 9MME‐projected changes in circulation conditions tied to summer YRD CDHWs during the carbon neutrality period (2050–2060) under SSP119 favour the comparable occurrence of the YRD with that for the same period under the medium greenhouse gas (GHG) warming scenario (SSP245), but the intensities of the CDHWs are the least severe. However, the highest number of YRD CDHWs is driven by the high GHG warming scenario (SSP585), and these CDHWs feature the most severe intensity. Our research identified a new paradigm regarding the frequency and intensity of the summer YRD CDHW under SSP119, highlighting the potential role of the newly accessible CN‐oriented sustainable development pathway in alleviating compound extremes.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Evaluation and projection of circulation conditions tied to summertime compound drought and heatwave frequency over the Yangtze River Delta, China, for the carbon neutrality period based on CMIP6 GCMs

Wang,

Liang,

Cheng

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…For the case-study application, we choose to simulate and compare future and historical periods for the southeastern region of China, a region characterized by a monsoonal precipitation regime with a dry season during the winter months and a wet season during the summer months. It is reported that global warming may shift the position of this East Asian monsoonal circulation (Li et al, 2010;Li et al, 2023), which potentially generates droughts or floods in areas where this usually does not happen, thus affecting local economy (Hu et al, 2016). Recent studies also highlight that economic losses in China caused by warming-induced weather and climate extremes such as droughts, floods, and compound events might double between the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming (Hao, 2022;Liu et al, 2022;Su et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Acceleration of the hydrological cycle under global warming? An age-weighted regional water tagging approach

Wei

Arnault

Rummler

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Global warming is assumed to accelerate the global water cycle. However, quantification of the acceleration and regional analyses remain open. Accordingly, in this study we address the fundamental hydrological question: Is the water cycle regionally accelerating/decelerating under global warming? For our investigation we have implemented the age-weighted regional water tagging approach into the Weather Research and Forecasting WRF model, namely WRF-age, to follow the atmospheric water pathways and to derive atmospheric water residence times accordingly. Moreover, we have implemented the three-dimensional online budget analysis of the total, tagged, and aged atmospheric water into WRF-age to provide a prognostic equation of the atmospheric water residence times. The newly developed, physics-based WRF-age model is used to regionally downscale the reanalysis of ERA-Interim and the MPI-ESM Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario (RCP8.5) simulation exemplarily for an East Asian monsoon region, i.e., the Poyang Lake basin (the tagged moisture source area), for two 10-year slices of historical (1980-1989) and future (2040-2049) times. In comparison to the historical simulation, the future 2-meter temperature rises by +1.4 °C, evaporation increases by +6%, and precipitation decreases by -38% under RCP8.5 on average. In this context, global warming leads to regionally decreased residence times for the tagged water vapor by 8 hours and the tagged condensed moisture by 12 hours in the atmosphere, but increased transit times for the tagged precipitation by 4 hours over the land surface that is partly attributed to a slower fallout of precipitating moisture components in the atmosphere under global warming.

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A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan

Ali,

Hamed,

Muhammad

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The study used a hybrid approach to evaluate the performance of 20 global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 in reproducing 20 extreme temperature and precipitation indices over Pakistan. This study first analysed the future simulations of extremes and discarded the GCMs whose projections fell outside the 95% confidence interval. The remaining GCMs' performance was evaluated using the Kling Gupta Efficiency‐based criteria. The changes in extreme climatic events in Pakistan were projected using the multi‐model ensemble (MME) median of the selected GCMs for four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) in two future periods, 2020–2059 and 2060–2099. Four GCMs' showed inconsistency in projecting future climatic extremes and were discarded initially. The past performance of the remaining GCMs revealed EC‐Earth3‐Veg‐LR, GFDL‐ESM4, MRI‐ESM2‐0 and NOR‐ESM2‐MM to be effective in reproducing extreme indices for the historical period. The MME median of the selected GCMs showed a gradual increase in most of the temperature and precipitation extreme indices in the future periods for all SSPs across the country. Specifically, it showed a higher increase in daily maximum temperature (TXx) by 4.5–5°C, daily minimum temperature (TNn) by more than 4.5°C, consecutive days with a temperature higher than the 95th percentile (WSDI) by >160 days, one‐day maximum rainfall by 9–15 mm and days with precipitation above the 95th percentile by >50 mm in northern high‐elevated areas during 2060–2099 for SSP585. Similarly, a higher increase in TXx by 4.5–5°C, TNn by >4.5°C, WSDI by 140 days and tropical nights by 40–60 days was also found in the western arid region during 2060–2099 for SSP585. The study highlights that northern high‐elevated and western arid regions are at a higher risk of extreme temperatures and precipitation due to climate change.

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Evaluation and projection of precipitation and temperature in a coastal climatic transitional zone in China based on CMIP6 GCMs

Cited by 11 publications

References 109 publications

Evaluation and projection of circulation conditions tied to summertime compound drought and heatwave frequency over the Yangtze River Delta, China, for the carbon neutrality period based on CMIP6 GCMs

Evaluation and projection of circulation conditions tied to summertime compound drought and heatwave frequency over the Yangtze River Delta, China, for the carbon neutrality period based on CMIP6 GCMs

Acceleration of the hydrological cycle under global warming? An age-weighted regional water tagging approach

A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan

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