Evaluation of a cloudy cold-air pool in the Columbia River Basin in different versions of the HRRR model

Abstract

Abstract. The accurate forecast of persistent orographic cold-air pools in numerical weather prediction models is essential for the optimal integration of wind energy into the electrical grid during these events. Model development efforts during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) aimed to address the challenges also related to this. We evaluated three different versions of NOAA's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model with two different horizontal grid spacings against in situ and remote sensing observations to investigate how developments in physical parameterizations and numerical methods targeted during WFIP2 impacted the simulation of a persistent cold-air pool in the Columbia River Basin. Differences between the different model versions were in particular visible in the simulated temperature and low-level cloud fields. The model developments led to an enhanced low-level cloud cover in the cold pool, resulting in better agreement with the observations. This removed a diurnal cycle in the near-surface temperature bias at stations throughout the basin by reducing a cold bias during the night and a warm bias during the day. However, low-level clouds did not clear sufficiently during daytime in the newest model version, which led to a warm bias near-the surface during the second night of the reforecasts and leaves room for further model developments. Besides the improvements during the persistent phase of the cold pool, the model developments also led to a better representation of its decay by slowing down its erosion.

Evaluation of a cloudy cold-air pool in the Columbia River basin in different versions of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model

“…energy.gov/data#wfip2). The v4 model data and plotting scripts to produce the figures in this paper are available at Zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6713495 (Adler, 2022). The model code used for the CTL and EXP runs is available via https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3369984 (Olson and Kenyon, 2019), and the code used for the v4 runs is available via https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6672455 .…”

Impact of Seasonal Snow‐Cover Change on the Observed and Simulated State of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer in a High‐Altitude Mountain Valley

“…NOAA Air Resources Laboratory provided sensible heat flux measurements at Brush Creek (Meyers, 2023). NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory conducted the Atmospheric Surface Flux Stations (ASFS) measurements at Avery Picnic and Kettle Ponds (NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, 2021b), and surface meteorology (NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, 2021a), ASSIST (Adler, Bianco, Djalalova, Myers, & Wilczak, 2022), and ceilometer (Adler, Bianco, Djalalova, Myers, Pezoa, et al., 2022) measurements at Roaring Judy. The AERI data at Brush Creek (Adler, Smith, et al., 2023) were collected as part of the Collaborative Lower Atmospheric Profiling System (CLAMPS) by NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory.…”