Evaluation of a detour guidance system during a disruption of train operations

Abstract

When train operations are disrupted, it is important to provide passengers with accurate information facilitating the rest of their trip. In Greater Tokyo especially, individual users need such information so that they can choose the best way to get to their destinations. We therefore developed a guidance system for users to determine whether to wait for a service to resume, or to take a detour route to their destinations. Our system arrives at decisions after computing estimated travel times to specific stations in the area where train services are disrupted. We devised a model for estimating of the amount of time required to travel between stations in the disrupted line. We analyzed past disruptions, and then established parameters for the model. The system provides an interface advising individual users whether it would be best to detour or not. We have carried out a field test in which subjects use their cell phones and investigated their route choices. The result has revealed that this system is effective; about 70% of subjects taking the advice arrived at their destination in the predicted time and more than 80% evaluated the system as useful. We conclude that even if the information represents only possible scenarios and the certainty is not complete, it can be accepted and effectively utilized.