Evaluation of ACCESS-S1 seasonal forecasts of growing season precipitation for Western Australia’s wheatbelt region

Abstract

Seasonal forecasts are increasingly important tools in agricultural crop management. Regions with Mediterranean-type climates typically adopt rain-fed agriculture with minimal irrigation, hence accurate seasonal forecasts of rainfall during the growing season are potentially useful in decision making. In this paper we examined the bias and skill of a seasonal forecast system (ACCESS-S1) in simulating growing season precipitation (GSP) for south-west Western Australian (SWWA), a region with a Mediterranean-type climate and significant cereal crop production. Focusing on July–September (3-month) and May–October (6-month) forecasts, with 0- and 1-month lead times, we showed that overall ACCESS-S1 had a dry bias for SWWA rainfall and a tendency to simulate close to average rainfall during both wetter and drier than average rainfall years. ACCESS-S1 showed particularly poor skill at these timeframes for very wet and very dry years. The limitations in ACCESS-S1 for SWWA GSP were associated with inaccuracies in the timing of heavy rainfall events. In addition, limitations of the ACCESS-S1 model in accurately capturing SST and wind anomaly patterns over the tropical Indian Ocean during extreme rainfall years also contributed to errors in SWWA GSP forecasts. Model improvements in these regions have the potential to improve seasonal rainfall forecasts for SWWA.