Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations

Nooijer, Wesley de; Zhang, Qiong; Li, Qiang; Zhang, Qiang; Li, Xiangyu; Zhang, Zhongshi; Guo, Chuncheng; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Haywood, Alan M.; Tindall, Julia; Hunter, Stephen J.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Stepanek, Christian; Lohmann, Gerrit; Otto‐Bliesner, Bette L.; Feng, Ran; Sohl, Linda E.; Tan, Ning; Contoux, Camille; Ramstein, Gilles; Baatsen, Michiel; Heydt, Anna S. von der; Chandan, Deepak; Peltier, W. Richard; Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako; Chan, Wing‐Le; Kamae, Youichi; Brierley, Chris

doi:10.5194/cp-2020-64

Cited by 3 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 68 publications

(143 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Each model's climate sensitivity also influences the simulated mid-Pliocene warming in PlioMIP2. For example, relative to CCSM4 and CESM1.2, CESM2 has the largest equilibrium climate sensitivity (Feng et al, 2020;Haywood et al, 2020) and simulates the strongest North https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-120 Preprint. Discussion started: 22 September 2020 c Author(s) 2020.…”

Section: Discussion and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The PlioMIP2 models show a larger model-spread in the simulated mid-Pliocene SST increases in the high-latitude North Atlantic, as well as the responses in AMOC and North Atlantic OHT, relative to PlioMIP1. This reduced agreement is not surprising as the model spread in global average surface temperatures is likewise more pronounced in PlioMIP2 (1.86-3.60 °C in PlioMIP1 (Haywood et al, 2013) compared to 1.7-5.2 °C in PlioMIP2 (Haywood et al, 2020)).…”

Section: Simulated North Atlantic Sea Surface Warmingmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…The atmospheric CO2 level is in line with the very latest high-resolution proxy reconstruction based on Boron isotopes for ~3.2 Ma (Chalk et al 2018). More details on the individual models and experimental design are introduced in a recent synthesis study (Haywood et al, 2020) and several individual modeling studies (Chandan and Peltier, 2017;Hunter et al, 2019;Chan and Abe-Ouchi, 2020;Döscher et al, 2020;Feng et al, 2020;Li et al, 2020;Lurton et al, 2020;Tan et al, 2020). In addition to these fifteen models, MRI-CGCM (Kamae et al, 2016) and…”

Section: Introduction Of Models Used In Pliomip2mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The most important change in boundary conditions in the northern high latitudes is the closure of the Canadian Archipelago and the Bering Strait (Haywood et al, 2016a). When incorporating the PRISM4 boundary conditions in PlioMIP2, the global annual mean SAT increases by 1.7-5.2°C relative to the pre-industrial, with a multi-model mean SAT increase of 3.2°C (Haywood et al, 2020). In the Arctic, simulated annual mean SAT increases by 3.7-11.6 °C compared to the pre-industrial, with a multi-model mean increase of 7.2 °C (de Nooijer et al, 2020).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated in PlioMIP2

Zhang¹,

Li²,

Guo³

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PlioMIP2), coupled climate models have been used to simulate an interglacial climate during the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma). Here, we compare the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), poleward ocean heat transport and sea surface warming in the Atlantic simulated with these models. In PlioMIP2, all models simulate an intensified mid-Pliocene AMOC. However, there is no consistent response in the simulated Atlantic ocean heat transport, or the depth of the Atlantic overturning cell. The models show a large spread in the simulated AMOC maximum, the Atlantic ocean heat transport, as well as the surface warming in the North Atlantic. Although a few models simulate a surface warming of ~ 8–12 ° in the North Atlantic, similar to the reconstruction from Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM), most models underestimate this warming. The large model-spread and model-data discrepancies in the PlioMIP2 ensemble does not support the hypothesis that an intensification of the AMOC, together with an increase in northward ocean heat transport, is the dominant forcing for the mid-Pliocene warm climate.

show abstract

Section: Discussion and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Simulated North Atlantic Sea Surface Warmingmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Introduction Of Models Used In Pliomip2mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated in PlioMIP2

Zhang¹,

Li²,

Guo³

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…the midHolocene and the lig127k), extensive ice sheet extent (the lgm), and volcanic and solar activities different from the current or historical ones (the past1000). The large-scale features from the PMIP4 multi-model ensemble have been evaluated for respective PMIP4 experiment for the midHolocene (Brierley et al, 2020), lig127k , lgm (Kageyama et al, 2020) and midPliocene (Haywood et al, 2020). 50 EC-Earth3-LR is one of the models that contribute to PMIP4.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating the mid-Holocene, Last Interglacial and mid-Pliocene climate with EC-Earth3-LR

Zhang¹,

Li²,

Zhang³

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Paleoclimate modelling has long been regarded as a strong out-of-sample test-bed of the climate models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. For the first time, the EC-Earth model contributes to the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phase 4, which is part of the current sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Here, we document the model setup for PMIP4 experiments with EC-Earth3-LR and present the results on the large-scale features from the completed production simulations for the three past warm periods (mid-Holocene, Last Interglacial, and mid-Pliocene). Using the pre-industrial climate as a reference state, we show the changes in global temperature, large scale Hadley circulation and Walker circulation, polar warming and global monsoons, as well as the climate variability modes (ENSO, PDO, AMO). The EC-Earth3-LR simulates reasonable climate responses during past warm periods as shown in the other PMIP4-CMIP6 model ensemble. The systematic comparison of these climate changes in three past warm periods in an individual model demonstrates the ability of the model to capture the climate response under different climate forcings, providing potential implications for confidence in future projections with EC-Earth model.

show abstract

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity

et al. 2020

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘C over land and 2.8 ∘C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60∘ N and 60∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.

show abstract

Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations

Cited by 3 publications

References 68 publications

Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated in PlioMIP2

Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated in PlioMIP2

Simulating the mid-Holocene, Last Interglacial and mid-Pliocene climate with EC-Earth3-LR

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About