Evaluation of assisted colonization strategies under global change for a rare, fire‐dependent plant

Regan, Helen M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Franklin, Janet; Swab, Rebecca M.; Markovchick, Lisa; Flint, Lorraine E.; Zedler, Paul H.

doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02586.x

Cited by 38 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 68 publications

(87 reference statements)

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“…They require sufficient time between fires to develop an adequate seed bank and are therefore sensitive to too-frequent fire (Keeley 1986). For obligate-seeding, long-lived trees and shrubs (Table 2), we constructed a spatially explicit stochastic age-based matrix model, with age classes ranging from seedlings to plants > 99 years old Regan et al 2010Regan et al , 2012. Survivorship was estimated by fitting functions to published data for the focal species or closely related species.…”

Section: Population Viability Analysis: the Impact Of Threats And Effmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We found that assisted colonization could minimize risk of decline or extinction for Tecate cypress when: (1) large source populations are projected to decline dramatically due to habitat contractions, (2) multiple nearby sites are predicted to contain suitable habitat, (3) the species has minimal natural dispersal, (4) rates of successful establishment of translocated individuals are high, and (5) non-climatic threats such as altered fire regimes are absent (Table 2). However, when serious ongoing threats exist, such as too-frequent fire, assisted colonization is ineffective at boosting population numbers (for details see Regan et al 2012).…”

Section: Assisted Colonizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because of the time needed for plants to mature and to establish a sufficient seed bank following fire, it is not surprising that too-frequent fire was a highly-ranked threat to long-lived obligate seeding species Regan et al 2010Regan et al , 2012Syphard et al 2013). However, even obligate resprouter abundances were predicted to decline by 50-60% with high fire frequency (Conlisk et al 2012).…”

Section: Management Actions: Fire Management Land Use Planning and Amentioning

confidence: 99%

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Linking spatially explicit species distribution and population models to plan for the persistence of plant species under global change

2013

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SUMMARYConservation managers and policy makers require models that can rank the impacts of multiple, interacting threats on biodiversity so that actions can be prioritized. An integrated modelling framework was used to predict the viability of plant populations for five species in southern California's Mediterraneantype ecosystem. The framework integrates forecasts of land-use change from an urban growth model with projections of future climatically-suitable habitat from climate and species distribution models, which are linked to a stochastic population model. The population model incorporates the effects of disturbance regimes and management actions on population viability. This framework: (1) ranks threats by their relative and cumulative impacts on population viability, such as land-use change, climate change, altered disturbance regimes or invasive species, and (2) ranks management responses in terms of their effectiveness for land protection, assisted dispersal, fire management and invasive species control. Toofrequent fire was often the top threat for the species studied, thus fire reduction was ranked the most important management option. Projected changes in suitable habitat as a result of climate change were generally large, but varied across species and climate scenarios; urban development could exacerbate loss of suitable habitat.

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Section: Population Viability Analysis: the Impact Of Threats And Effmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Assisted Colonizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Management Actions: Fire Management Land Use Planning and Amentioning

confidence: 99%

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Linking spatially explicit species distribution and population models to plan for the persistence of plant species under global change

2013

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“…3) (105,108). PVA can also be used to evaluate the efficacy of adaptation measures such as fire management, invasive species control, and managed relocation (109,110).…”

Section: Accounting For Dispersal Limitations When Predicting Speciesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

Franklin

Serra‐Diaz

Syphard

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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This contribution is part of a special series of Inaugural Articles by members of the National Academy of Sciences elected in 2014.Contributed by Janet Franklin, February 2, 2016 (sent for review October 8, 2015; reviewed by Gregory P. Asner, Monica G. Turner, and Peter M. Vitousek)Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.climate change | drought | forests | global change | land-use change T errestrial plant communities include forests, woodlands, shrublands, and grasslands; they support economic activities including forestry and grazing and provide other ecosystem services (1) such as carbon sequestration and water delivery. Plant communities play a key role in global biogeochemical cycles of carbon, oxygen, water, and nitrogen, with feedbacks to the oceans, atmosphere, and climate. The distribution of animals on land is often influenced by the distribution of vegetation, and therefore, plant community dynamics affect biodiversity. Changes in the Earth's vegetation in response to climate change, and associated faunal changes, may have played a role in the evolution of the human lineage (2, 3). Thus, human populations have a vested interest in understanding rapid global change effects on terrestrial plant communities.Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and other greenhouse gasses and associated changes in the climate, as well...

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“…Recently, population models have been coupled with species distribution models and threat distribution to investigate expected responses by populations to changing threats and likely actions (e.g. Regan et al 2012). Alternatives to the conventional approach of additive threat mapping depend on the problem scale and constraints.…”

Section: Threat Maps Are Not a Panacea: Improvements To Using Threat mentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing direct and indirect threats to marine ecosystems to balance multiple objectives

Tulloch¹

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Human activities affecting the environment are intensifying. In marine ecosystems, direct stressors of overfishing and habitat destruction have led to biodiversity declines, prompting calls for conservation action and more sustainable resource management. Managing stressors becomes more challenging when stressors interact, or are indirect, whereby the source of the threatening activity is displaced from impacts, such as the localised effects of global warming, or runoff from land-use change degrading coral reefs. Effective management requires improved understanding of ecosystem responses to multiple stressors and consideration of interactions between stressors and species.Opposing objectives and outcomes of marine conservation (i.e. reducing stressors) versus resource management (often increasing stressors) compromise effective decision-making. Approaches are needed that include ecological and socio-economic information to promote long-term sustainability of extractive uses, protect functioning ecosystems, and conserve biodiversity. The choice of tool used to inform ecosystem management is typically constrained by management goals and available resources -spatial planning is typically used for conservation, whereas resource management relies more on population modelling.The goal of this thesis is to harness spatial and population modelling techniques to combine resource management with biodiversity conservation and link direct and indirect stressors to marine biodiversity persistence. Chapter 1 provides the context for the thesis, where I explore these themes and outline differences in decision-making for conservation versus extraction. In Chapter 2, I explore how agencies have managed stressors to date, and show that a decision-theoretic approach known as "structured decision-making" (SDM) is a more logical and effective way of managing stressors than traditional approaches that map threats. SDM requires clear objectives, canvassing of alternative management options, and linking outcomes for biodiversity to the effectiveness of each management option. SDM ensures that conservation actions occur where they are the most cost-efficient or effective. I apply recommendations from Chapter 2 in two case studies for managing multiple stressors to marine ecosystems: 1) spatial planning for oil palm agriculture and coral reef fisheries in Papua New Guinea (Chapters 3 and 4), and 2) managing whale species affected by harvesting, climate change and krill population dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere (Chapters 5 and 6).In Chapter 3 I combine ecosystem models and threat maps with spatial conservation planning to predict responses of coral and seagrass ecosystems to changing land uses. My novel framework identifies high priority areas for marine reserves whilst accounting for indirect impacts of land use change such as oil palm development and uncertainty in future stressor intensities. I demonstrate ii how we can reduce adverse impacts of oil palm expansion and make more effective whole-ofsystem decisions for coasta...

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Evaluation of assisted colonization strategies under global change for a rare, fire‐dependent plant

Cited by 38 publications

References 68 publications

Linking spatially explicit species distribution and population models to plan for the persistence of plant species under global change

Linking spatially explicit species distribution and population models to plan for the persistence of plant species under global change

Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

Managing direct and indirect threats to marine ecosystems to balance multiple objectives

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