Evaluation of atmospheric indicators in the Adriatic coastal areas: a multi-hazards approach for a better awareness of the current and future climate

Abstract

Increasing climate resilience to global warming is one of the main challenges of the last few decades. Effective local measures have to be adopted to provide concrete solutions to the current and expected impacts of climate change. This is the goal of the AdriaClim Italia-Croatia Interreg Project (https://www.italy-croatia.eu/web/adriaclim), aimed at supporting the development of regional and local climate change adaptation plans for the Adriatic coastal regions. For this purpose, an exhaustive number of atmospheric climate indicators have been identified and evaluated across nine pilot areas to assess the current and expected main climate hazards affecting these regions, considering the worst-case emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 8.5). The proposed analyses are provided by the results of the regional climate atmospheric model developed within the AdriaClim Project. The selected climate indicators are used to assess the possible evolution of the climate hazard across the pilot areas, covering different hazards, such as thermal discomfort, drought, and hydrological instability. A site-dependent investigation of the atmospheric climate indicators is proposed to emphasize which regions are more affected than others by the investigated climate hazards, thus warranting more attention in defining and proposing new adaptation strategies. The results highlight increasing temperatures (up to +3°C) across the Adriatic coastal regions, with more emphasis on the Northern Adriatic, where the combined effect with the relevant decrease in precipitation (down to −2 mm/day) may lead to severe drought conditions in the coming decades. In contrast, precipitation-related diseases may hit more Central and South Italy than the Northern Adriatic, except for the Emilia-Romagna region, which is found to be highly sensitive to both hazard categories. Finally, it is relevant to emphasize that these analyses have to be carefully considered in supporting adaptation strategies due to the lack of uncertainty estimates representing a fundamental element for decision-makers.