Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests

Hussain, Mubasher; Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan; Mustafa, Muhammad Raza Ul; Mahmood, Rashid; Jia, Shaofeng

doi:10.1007/s00704-017-2284-5

Cited by 27 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 62 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…TP is located in East Asia. The study area in this work is limited to [26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40] • N and 74-106 • E (Figure 1). TP features a complex topography, snow mountains, glaciers, permafrost, and lakes.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Assessing the Performance of CMIP5 Global Climate Models for Simulating Future Precipitation Change in the Tibetan Plateau

Kang

Ruan

Yang

et al. 2019

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this study, the performance of 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) in simulating precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was assessed using data from 1961 to 2005 by an improved score-based method, which adopts multiple criteria to achieve a comprehensive evaluation. The future precipitation change was also estimated based on the Delta method by selecting the submultiple model ensemble (SMME) in the near-term and far future (2051-2095) periods under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results showed that most GCMs can reasonably simulate the precipitation pattern of an annual cycle; however, all GCMs overestimated the precipitation over TP, especially in spring and summer. The GCMs generally provide good simulations of the temporal characteristics of precipitation, while they did not perform as well in reproducing its spatial distributions. Different assessment criteria lead to inconsistent results; however, the improved rank score method, which adopts multiple criteria, provided a robust assessment of GCMs performance. The future annual precipitation was projected to increase by~6% in the near-term with respect to the period 1961-2005, whereas increases of 12.3% and 16.7% are expected in the far future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Similar spatial distributions of future precipitation changes can be seen in the near-term and far future periods under the two scenarios, and indicate that the most predominant increases occurred in the north of TP. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable information on climate change, and for water resources and agricultural management in TP.

show abstract

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many studies have been conducted to assess the performance of precipitation simulations of the CMIP5 GCMs using various methods in different regions [24][25][26][27][28][29]. Fu et al [30] evaluated the performance of 25 GCMs using a score-based method in southeastern Australia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Performance of CMIP5 Global Climate Models for Simulating Future Precipitation Change in the Tibetan Plateau

Kang

Ruan

Yang

et al. 2019

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Daily rainfall record of 11 rainfall stations in the bakun catchment was acquired from Department of Irrigation and Drainage, Sarawak, for the period of 1976-2005. Twenty gcms from cmIP5 have been evaluated by hussain et al in [16] for their capability to simulate the historical precipitation over the rrb; they noted that the three gcmS (as listed in Table 1) are the most suitable models for the future precipitation projection over the rrb. In this study, we used the precipitation projection of these three models for the river flow projection at the murum Dam.…”

Section: Data Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dam operation under changing climate: Analysing water availability and hydropower production from Murum Dam in Sarawak

Yusof¹,

Hussain²,

Mustafa³

2019

Int. J. SDP

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this study, we assessed the climate change impact on water resources availability and hydropower energy yield from the murum Dam in Sarawak state of malaysia. Precipitation ensembles of three general circulation models from coupled model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (cmIP5) were used to simulate daily inflows at murum Dam for the historical period of 1976-2015 and for the future period of 2011-2100 under two future scenarios (rcP4.5 and rcP8.5). a rainfall-runoff model was developed using australian Water balance model approach to simulate river inflows at murum Dam. reservoir operation model was developed using hec-resSim to simulate the operation for murum reservoir under the historical and future projected inflows. It is noted that the mean river inflow at murum Dam would increase by 4% and 11% during 2080s under rcP4.5 and rcP8.5, respectively. Similar results are noted while simulating the murum reservoir operation; it is noted that the average annual energy from murum hydroelectric Plant would increase by 5% and 12% during 2080s under rcP4.5 and rcP8.5, respectively.

show abstract

“…Increasing attention has been directed at evaluating the performance of CMIP5 GCMs by means of various methodologies applied to different geographical regions of study (Dong et al, 2018;Hussain et al, 2018;Kumar et al, 2013;Zhou et al, 2014). For instance, Fu et al (2013) developed a score-based method to assess the performance of 25 GCMs in southeastern Australia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of CMIP5 GCM Simulation Performance for Temperature Projection in the Tibetan Plateau

Kang

Ruan

Yang

et al. 2019

Earth and Space Science

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The performance of 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) in temperature simulations in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was comprehensively assessed by an improved score-based and multiple-criteria method using data collected from 1961 to 2005. Future temperatures were also simulated based on a multimodel ensemble coupled with the Delta downscaling method for near-term (2006-2050) and long-term (2051-2095) projections under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our results demonstrated that all the GCMs evaluated in our study could capture the seasonal temperature patterns. However, most GCMs tended to underestimate temperatures by an average of −2.0°C. All the GCMs could effectively simulate temporal distribution, with a mean correlation coefficient of 0.997. However, they did not perform well in reproducing spatial distribution. Different assessment criteria lead to inconsistent results; however, the improved rank score method with multiple criteria provided a robust assessment of GCMs performance. MPI-ESM-LR, CMCC-CMS, and GFDL-ESM 2M showed a better temperature simulation performance compared to the other GCMs that we have assessed. Topographic correction could effectively enhance spatial distribution simulation; however, this increased temperature underestimation. Future temperatures were projected to increase by 1.4°C and 1.6°C in near-term, and by 2.4°C and 4.0°C in long-term under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. High temperatures mainly occurring in the southeastern end of the Himalayas, as well as the northern and southeastern margins of the TP. The results are expected to provide valuable information on climate change and its impact on hydrology, ecology, and socioeconomics of the TP.

show abstract

Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests

Cited by 27 publications

References 62 publications

Assessing the Performance of CMIP5 Global Climate Models for Simulating Future Precipitation Change in the Tibetan Plateau

Assessing the Performance of CMIP5 Global Climate Models for Simulating Future Precipitation Change in the Tibetan Plateau

Dam operation under changing climate: Analysing water availability and hydropower production from Murum Dam in Sarawak

Assessment of CMIP5 GCM Simulation Performance for Temperature Projection in the Tibetan Plateau

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About