Evaluation of CMIP5 twentieth century rainfall simulation over the equatorial East Africa

Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Gao, Chujie

doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2392-x

Cited by 96 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 80 publications

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“…Efforts have also been made to understand the models performance in reproducing the current climate (e.g. Otieno and Anyah 2013a, Endris et al 2013, Ongoma et al 2019, Kisembe et al 2019 and assess future projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the GHA (e.g. Shongwe et al 2011, Anyah and Qiu 2012, Otieno and Anyah 2013b, Omondi et al 2014, Endris et al 2019.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa

Gudoshava

Misiani

Segele

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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This study examines the effects of 1.5°C and 2°C global warming levels (GWLs) on intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa. The impacts are analysed based on the outputs of a 25-member regional multi-model ensemble from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment project. The regional climate models were driven by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Global Climate Models for historical and future (RCP8.5) periods. We analyse the three major seasons over the region, namely March-May, June-September, and October-December. Results indicate widespread robust changes in the mean intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics at 1.5°C and 2°C GWLs especially for the June-September and October-December seasons. The March-May season is projected to shift for both GWL scenarios with the season starting and ending early. During the June-September season, there is a robust indication of delayed onset, reduction in consecutive wet days and shortening of the length of rainy season over parts of the northern sector under 2°C GWL. During the October-December season, the region is projected to have late-onset, delayed cessation, reduced consecutive wet days and a longer season over most of the equatorial region under the 2°C GWL. These results indicate that it is crucial to limit the GWL to below 1.5°C as the differences between the 1.5°C and 2°C GWLs in some cases exacerbates changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa

Gudoshava

Misiani

Segele

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…One area that should be thoroughly researched is the vulnerability of agriculture to the effects of projected climate change. This research can be achieved by using available accurate and timely information regarding the expected changes in both mean and extreme climate events, which is still limited in EA (Omondi et al ., ; Ongoma et al ., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes in mean rainfall and temperature over East Africa based on CMIP5 models

Ongoma

Chen

Gao

2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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106

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This study presents potential future variations of mean rainfall and temperature over East Africa (EA) based on five models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. In this study, climate simulations of two timeframes, a baseline period (1961–1990) and projection period (2071–2100), are compared. The models reproduce EA's bimodal rainfall pattern but overestimate and underestimate seasonal rainfall of October–December (OND) and March–May (MAM), respectively. Rainfall is projected to increase under the two scenarios. Larger increases in rainfall will occur during the OND season than during the MAM season and in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5. During the last half of the 21st century, EA is likely to warm by 1.7–2.8 and 2.2–5.4 °C under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, relative to the baseline period. Scenario uncertainty is projected to exceed model uncertainty from the middle to the end of the 21st century. The central parts of Kenya and the Lake Victoria Basin will witness the highest increases in seasonal rainfall. The probability density functions (PDFs) of future seasonal rainfall show a positive shift and a statistically insignificant increase in variance relative to the baseline. Thus, EA is likely to experience an increase in extreme rainfall events. Understanding the future climate variability in EA is important for planning purposes but these results are based on relatively course resolution models prone to bias and therefore should be used with caution. There is a need for further research on climate projections over EA, including determining the causes of the poor performance of global models in reproducing rainfall climatology and trends over the region.

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“…Climate models are key to analysing the projected risk of climate change, including droughts. In most regions of Africa there has been investment in the analysis of global climate models, for example in southern Africa (Dieppois et al, 2015;Munday and Washington, 2017;Pohl et al, 2017;Munday and Washington, 2018), East Africa (Otieno and Anyah, 2013;Yang et al, 2015;Hirons and Turner, 2018;Ongoma et al, 2018) and the Sahel (Cook and Vizy, 2006;Vizy et al, 2013;Martin et al, 2014;Monerie et al, 2017). However the ability of GCMs to reproduce the historical climate of Ethiopia has not been widely studied, possibly because of the unique climate characteristics of the country such as the complex rainfall seasonality which render it distinct from East Africa to the south, and the Sahel to the west.…”

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confidence: 99%

Evaluating the CMIP5 ensemble in Ethiopia: Creating a reduced ensemble for rainfall and temperature in Northwest Ethiopia and the Awash basin

Dyer

Washington

Taye

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The purpose of this study was to evaluate the historical skill of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in two regions of Ethiopia: northwestern Ethiopia and the Awash, one of the main Ethiopian river basins. An ensemble of CMIP5 models was first selected so that atmosphere-only (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project, AMIP) and fully coupled simulations could be directly compared, assessing the effects of coupled model sea surface temperature (SST) biases. The annual cycle, seasonal biases, trends, and variability were used as metrics of model skill. In the Awash basin, both coupled and AMIP simulations had late Belg or March-May (MAM) rainy seasons. In connection to this, most models also missed the June rainfall minimum entirely. Northwest Ethiopia, which has a unimodal rainfall cycle in observations, is shown to have bimodal seasonality in models, even in the AMIP simulations. Significant AMIP biases in these regions show that model biases are not related to SST biases alone. Similarly, a clear connection between model resolution and skill was not found. Models simulated temperature with more skill than rainfall, but trends showed an underestimation in Belg (MAM/April-May (AM)) trends, and an overestimation in Kiremt or July-September (JAS/June-September (JJAS)) trends. The models which were shown to have the most skill in a range of categories were HadGEM2-AO, GFDL-CM3, and MPI-ESM-MR. The biases and discrepancies in model skill for different metrics of rainfall and temperature found in this study provide a useful basis for a process-based analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble in Ethiopia.

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Evaluation of CMIP5 twentieth century rainfall simulation over the equatorial East Africa

Cited by 96 publications

References 80 publications

Projected effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa

Projected effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa

Projected changes in mean rainfall and temperature over East Africa based on CMIP5 models

Evaluating the CMIP5 ensemble in Ethiopia: Creating a reduced ensemble for rainfall and temperature in Northwest Ethiopia and the Awash basin

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