Evaluation of Data Needs for Assessments of Aquifers Supporting Irrigated Agriculture

Bohling, Geoffrey C.; Butler, James J.; Whittemore, Donald O.; Wilson, B. B.

doi:10.1029/2020wr028320

Cited by 13 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Large dashed line is the average net inflow (left y ‐axis) calculated from (a). The estimated uncertainty (one standard deviation) in net inflow is 0.076 × 10 9 m 3 (determined using methods described in Butler et al 2016 and Bohling et al 2021).…”

Section: Net Inflowmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The large dashed line is the average net inflow calculated from the solid line in (a), while the small dashed line is the annual net inflow calculated as described in text; the circle is the average annual net inflow for 2006 and 2007. Uncertainty estimates (one standard deviation) in annual water use, average net inflow, and annual net inflow are ±0.09% of plotted value, 0.012 × 10 9 m 3 , and 0.041 × 10 9 m 3 , respectively (determined using methods described in Butler et al 2016 and Bohling et al 2021). Data are provided in Table S2.…”

Section: Net Inflowmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Net Inflow: An Important Target on the Path to Aquifer Sustainability

Butler¹,

Bohling

Perkins

et al. 2022

Groundwater

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Aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture are a resource of global importance. Many of these systems, however, are experiencing significant pumping‐induced stress that threatens their continued viability as a water source for irrigation. Reductions in pumping are often the only option to extend the lifespans of these aquifers and the agricultural production they support. The impact of reductions depends on a quantity known as “net inflow” or “capture.” We use data from a network of wells in the western Kansas portions of the High Plains aquifer in the central United States to demonstrate the importance of net inflow, how it can be estimated in the field, how it might vary in response to pumping reductions, and why use of “net inflow” may be preferred over “capture” in certain contexts. Net inflow has remained approximately constant over much of western Kansas for at least the last 15 to 25 years, thereby allowing it to serve as a target for sustainability efforts. The percent pumping reduction required to reach net inflow (i.e., stabilize water levels for the near term [years to a few decades]) can vary greatly over this region, which has important implications for groundwater management. However, the reduction does appear practically achievable (less than 30%) in many areas. The field‐determined net inflow can play an important role in calibration of regional groundwater models; failure to reproduce its magnitude and temporal variations should prompt further calibration. Although net inflow is a universally applicable concept, the reliability of field estimates is greatest in seasonally pumped aquifers.

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Section: Net Inflowmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Net Inflowmentioning

confidence: 99%

Net Inflow: An Important Target on the Path to Aquifer Sustainability

Butler¹,

Bohling

Perkins

et al. 2022

Groundwater

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“…The uncertainty in the Sy estimates can be quantified using an approach developed by Butler et al (2016). Assuming that the residuals between the regression line and the data are normally distributed and uncorrelated (this assumption was assessed to be reasonable in Bohling et al, (2021) and in this work; see Figure S4 in Supporting Information S1), the intercept and slope of the regression line follow a bivariate normal distribution with a mean vector equal to the regression estimates of those values, and a covariance matrix reflecting the spread of data around the regression line (the residual variance) and the distribution of data along the horizontal (water use) axis. One million pairs of (slope, intercept) values were generated from this bivariate normal distribution, resulting in 1 million Sy estimates (Equation 1).…”

Section: A New Approach For Determining the Spatial Distribution Of Symentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of Specific Yield for Regional Groundwater Models: Pitfalls, Ramifications, and a Promising Path Forward

Liu

Wilson

Bohling

et al. 2022

Water Resources Research

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Specific yield (Sy) is one of the most important aquifer parameters in groundwater models with large storage changes. However, it has received limited attention from the modeling community and there are few, if any, approaches that can be widely applied for determination of Sy at the scale required for regional aquifer studies. Despite the limitations of parameter estimation methods and of direct measurements of aquifer storage properties in the field, the large uncertainty in model Sy values is typically ignored and Sy is incorrectly assumed to be a known quantity. These practices can introduce errors into model predictions of aquifer budget components, such as recharge and storage depletion. In turn, aquifer management and planning can be greatly impacted, as estimates of aquifer responses to pumping changes are highly dependent on those simulated budget components. In this work, we use a groundwater model of a portion of the High Plains aquifer in the central United States to illustrate the impacts of inappropriately large Sy values on model predictions and the related water management ramifications. Building on our recent work, we propose a data‐driven approach for determining specific yield for regional groundwater models. Results demonstrate that this new approach can improve model reliability and lead to more robust predictions of aquifer responses to management scenarios.

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“…The state of Kansas is the most prominent exception with over 95% of its approximately 18,900 irrigation wells metered and subject to regulatory verification (Butler et al, 2016;NASS, 2018). Bohling et al (2021), Lamb et al (2021), and Majumdar et al (2020) use the Kansas pumping data to evaluate how many wells need to be metered, the major influences on pumping volume, and the effectiveness of a new machine learning approach for estimating pumping volumes, respectively. Foster et al (2020) use the pumping data from a heavily monitored area in the state of Introduction to Special Section: The Quest for Sustainability of Heavily Stressed Aquifers at Regional to Global Scales…”

Section: Data Needsmentioning

confidence: 99%