Evaluation of GHG Emission Measures Based on Shipping and Shipbuilding Market Forecasting

Abstract

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the global shipping sector have been increasing due to global economic growth. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set a goal of halving GHG emissions from the global shipping sector by 2050 as compared with 2008 levels, and has responded by introducing several international regulations to reduce the GHG emissions of maritime transportation. The impact of GHG emissions’ regulation and measures to curb them have been evaluated in the IMO’s GHG studies. However, the long-term influence of these GHG emission measures has not yet been assessed. Additionally, the impact of various GHG reduction measures on the shipping and shipbuilding markets has not been considered; accordingly, there is room for improvement in the estimation of GHG emissions. Therefore, in this study, a model to consider GHG emission scenarios for the maritime transportation sector was developed using system dynamics and was integrated into a shipping and shipbuilding market model. The developed model was validated based on actual results and estimation results taken from a previous study. Subsequently, simulations were conducted, allowing us to evaluate the impact and effectiveness of GHG emission-curbing measures using the proposed model. Concretely, we conducted an evaluation of the effects of current and future measures, especially ship speed reduction, transition to liquid natural gas (LNG) fuel, promotion of energy efficiency design index (EEDI) regulation, and introduction of zero-emission ships, for GHG emission reduction. Additionally, we conducted an evaluation of the combination of current and future measures. The results showed that it is difficult to achieve the IMO goals for 2050 by combining only current measures and that the introduction of zero-emission ships is necessary to achieve the goals. Moreover, the limits of ship speed reduction were discussed quantitatively in relation to the maritime market aspect, and it was found that the feasible limit of ship speed reduction from a maritime market perspective was approximately 50%.

Simulation Method of Decarbonization of International Shipping for Evaluating the Impact of Possible Regulation Limiting GHG Intensity of Marine Fuels

“…Halim et al (2018) developed a future CO2 estimation model combining the International Freight Model and Activity, Structure, Intensity, and Emission factor methods and conducted impact assessments of various GHG reduction measures until 2035. Wada et al (2021) used system dynamics to model the shipping and shipbuilding market and forecast future shipbuilding demand affected by the EEDI, slow steaming, and penetration of LNG to reduce GHG emissions. Zwaginga et al (2022) pointed out that future uncertainties including regulation make designing ships difficult and utilized three methods to deal with the deep uncertainty in designing alternative fueled ships: dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP), responsive system comparison (RSC), and robust decision making (RDM).…”

Carbon and cost accounting for liner shipping under the European Union Emission Trading System

“…With the development of the economy and trade around the world, CO 2 emissions from maritime activities continue to increase (Wada et al, 2021). From 2012 to 2018, GHG emissions from the maritime industry increased from 977 million tons to 1076 million tons (Li et al, 2022), with its share rising from 2.76% to 2.89% (Farkas et al, 2022).…”

Does the Increase in Renewable Energy Influence GDP Growth? An EU-28 Analysis

“…The intensive use of these sources and their burning to generate energy has led to the creation of greenhouse gases (GHG). Greenhouse gases are those that produce and absorb infrared radiation in the range of wavelengths emitted by Earth [1], representing, in the opinion of some authors, a group of gases with a significant contribution to global warming and climate change [2,3].…”