Evaluation of global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed simulated by CMIP6 models and their future projections

Abstract

We evaluate the performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating the observed global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed (NSWS) and project its future changes under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Results show that the CESM2 has the best ability in reproducing the observed NSWS trends, although all models examined are generally not doing well. Based on projections of CESM2, the global NSWS will decrease from 2021 to 2100 under all three SSPs. The projected NSWS declines significantly over the north of 20°N, especially across North America, Europe, and the mid‐to‐high latitudes of Asia; meanwhile, it increases over the south of 20°N. Under SSP585, there would be more light‐windy days and fewer strong‐windy days than those under SSP245, which leads to a significant global NSWS decline. Robust hemispheric‐asymmetric changes in the NSWS could be due to the temperature gradient in the two hemispheres under global warming, with −1.2%, −3.5%, and −4.1% in the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.8%, 1.0%, and 1.5% in the Southern Hemisphere, for the near‐term (2021–2040), mid‐term (2041–2060), and long‐term (2081–2100), respectively.

Uncertainty in surface wind speed projections over the Iberian Peninsula: CMIP6 GCMs versus a WRF‐RCM

“…9 Conversely, the WRF-CESM2 does not better represent the past temporal variability than GCMs, and it simulates a nonsignificant increase of SWS for the historical period. Although Shen et al 16 denoted that the CESM2 has the best abilities among all the CMIP6 models globally, we found that neither CESM2 nor WRF-CESM2 outperforms other models over the IP.…”

“…To explore the differences of using a higher horizontal resolution product, the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) has been dynamically downscaled using the WRF model. As Shen et al 16 proposed, CESM2 has the best performance in reproducing the past terrestrial global SWS. 23 The dynamic downscaling method was performed with WRFv3.8.1 using the ARW dynamic core.…”

“…These results are in agreement with previous studies over the Northern Hemisphere regions. 16,46 To summarize, the higher the greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the higher the projected stilling for the 21st century. In contrast, positive SWS trends are predicted for mid-(2036-2061) and end-(2071-2100) of the century for the WRF-CESM2 under SSP585, the highest external forcing scenario.…”

“…Carvalho et al 15 compared the 100 m wind speed projections over Europe using the CMIP5 and the CMIP6, finding discrepancies with the previous study: the CMIP6 models project a general decrease, particularly under SSP585 and at the end of the century (2081-2100) for the whole of Europe. At a global scale, Shen et al 16 found that generally most of the CMIP6 GCMs could not represent the long-term observed SWS change, and selected the CESM2 as the best performance model. In addition, a decrease in SWS was detected over Europe under all shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios for the 21st century.…”

Greater Climate Sensitivity and Variability on TRAPPIST-1e than Earth

“…These changes can significantly impact multiple aspects of the climate system, including precipitation, ocean currents, and ecosystems. The CMIP results have shown that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gasses are driving significant changes in global wind and temperature patterns 19,24,25 . In the latest CMIP6 simulations, the influence of changes in greenhouse gasses and adaptation policies on the climate system has been assessed using scenarios termed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)26.…”