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This report examines the time-dependent dynamics of transitioning from the current United States (U.S.) nuclear fuel cycle where used nuclear fuel is disposed in a repository to a closed fuel cycle where the used fuel is recycled and only fission products and waste are disposed. The report is intended to help inform policy developers, decision makers, and program managers of system-level options and constraints as they guide the formulation and implementation of advanced fuel cycle development and demonstration efforts and move toward deployment of nuclear fuel recycling infrastructure.The analyses in this report have highlighted a number of key findings associated with nuclear energy growth and fuel cycle transitioning. These findings are discussed in this summary and may be found in a bulleted list in Section 6.1 of the main report.The report opens with a summary of advanced fuel cycle objectives and goals from the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) and its predecessor programs. These objectives and goals provide the basis for assessing fuel cycle system performance in the analyses that follow.To understand the magnitude of potential nuclear energy growth, energy demand and nuclear competitiveness are assessed. Long-range global energy models based on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Reference Scenario project a five-fold increase in world electricity consumption by the end of the century. The Reference Scenario indicates nuclear energy is competitive with other energy sources and shows an increasing reliance on nuclear energy later in the century, with the world's nuclear share of the electricity market rising from the current 16% to 20% and the United States' share rising from 20% to 25%.Actions to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to address climate change significantly increase projected growth of nuclear energy and other low-carbon energy sources. Figure ES-1 shows the change in sources of electricity generation when a CO 2 emissions constraint is applied globally and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies are successfully developed for use with fossil fuels. The Reference Scenario shown in Figure ES-1 is based on the Scenario of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program [Clarke2007], which incorporates the most up-to-date historical information and assumptions regarding future demographics, socioeconomic parameters, and energy use, and thus, employs an important reference baseline for long-term global energy and economic analysis. With CCS, nuclear energy market share increases to 33% of electricity generation globally and 41% domestically. Without CCS technologies, nuclear energy market share increases to 50% globally and 58% domestically. These analyses do not consider non-electric While these analyses using the once-through fuel cycle and a global energy simulation indicate the significant value of nuclear energy as one of the key tools for reducing CO 2 emissions to address climate change, they also show huge increases in u...
This report examines the time-dependent dynamics of transitioning from the current United States (U.S.) nuclear fuel cycle where used nuclear fuel is disposed in a repository to a closed fuel cycle where the used fuel is recycled and only fission products and waste are disposed. The report is intended to help inform policy developers, decision makers, and program managers of system-level options and constraints as they guide the formulation and implementation of advanced fuel cycle development and demonstration efforts and move toward deployment of nuclear fuel recycling infrastructure.The analyses in this report have highlighted a number of key findings associated with nuclear energy growth and fuel cycle transitioning. These findings are discussed in this summary and may be found in a bulleted list in Section 6.1 of the main report.The report opens with a summary of advanced fuel cycle objectives and goals from the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) and its predecessor programs. These objectives and goals provide the basis for assessing fuel cycle system performance in the analyses that follow.To understand the magnitude of potential nuclear energy growth, energy demand and nuclear competitiveness are assessed. Long-range global energy models based on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Reference Scenario project a five-fold increase in world electricity consumption by the end of the century. The Reference Scenario indicates nuclear energy is competitive with other energy sources and shows an increasing reliance on nuclear energy later in the century, with the world's nuclear share of the electricity market rising from the current 16% to 20% and the United States' share rising from 20% to 25%.Actions to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to address climate change significantly increase projected growth of nuclear energy and other low-carbon energy sources. Figure ES-1 shows the change in sources of electricity generation when a CO 2 emissions constraint is applied globally and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies are successfully developed for use with fossil fuels. The Reference Scenario shown in Figure ES-1 is based on the Scenario of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program [Clarke2007], which incorporates the most up-to-date historical information and assumptions regarding future demographics, socioeconomic parameters, and energy use, and thus, employs an important reference baseline for long-term global energy and economic analysis. With CCS, nuclear energy market share increases to 33% of electricity generation globally and 41% domestically. Without CCS technologies, nuclear energy market share increases to 50% globally and 58% domestically. These analyses do not consider non-electric While these analyses using the once-through fuel cycle and a global energy simulation indicate the significant value of nuclear energy as one of the key tools for reducing CO 2 emissions to address climate change, they also show huge increases in u...
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