Evaluation of land use change predictions using CA-Markov model and management scenarios

Nehzak, Hassan Khavarian; Aghaei, Maryam; Mostafazadeh, Raoof; Rabiei-Dastjerdi, Hamidreza

doi:10.1016/b978-0-323-89861-4.00017-8

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Multi-scenario simulations were made of the LULC changes, which will help to improve protection measures, support policy decisions, and promote proper land use ( Liu et al., 2017 ; Nehzak et al., 2022 ). Four scenarios were assumed based on the TRB’s regional climate changes and different socio-economic developments.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of landscape change on habitat quality in arid desert areas based on future scenarios: Tarim River Basin as a case study

Zhang

Chen

2022

Front. Plant Sci.

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Human activities have caused spatiotemporal patterns of land use and land cover (LULC) change. The LULC change has directly affected habitat quality (HQ) and ecosystem functions. Assessing, simulating, and predicting spatiotemporal changes and future trends under different scenarios of LULC-influenced HQ is beneficial to land use planners and decision-makers, helping them to formulate plans in a sustainable and responsible way. This study assesses and simulates the HQ of the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the future land use simulation model (FLUS), the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, and partial least squares regression (PLSR). Since 2000, the TRB has experienced a declining trend in HQ from 0.449 to 0.444, especially in the lower elevations (740-2000m) and on sloped land (<10°). The decline will continue unless effective and sustainable plans are implemented to halt it. Agricultural and settlement areas have a lower HQ and a higher degree of habitat degradation than native habitats. This shows that the expansion of oasis agriculture (with an annual growth rate of 372.17 km2) and settlements (with an annual growth rate of 23.50 km2) has caused a decline in native habitat and subsequent habitat fragmentation. In other words, changes in LULC have caused a decline in the HQ. Moreover, there is a significant negative correlation between HQ and urbanization rate (p<0.01), and the PLSR also indicate that number of patches (NP), area-weighted mean fractal dimension index (FRAC_AM), percentage of landscape (PLAND), and largest patch index (LPI) were also important contributors to worsening the HQ. Therefore, the TRB urgently needs appropriate strategies to preserve its natural habitats into the future, based on the ecological priority scenario (EPS) and harmonious development scenario (HDS), which can help to maintain a high-quality habitat.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of landscape change on habitat quality in arid desert areas based on future scenarios: Tarim River Basin as a case study

Zhang

Chen

2022

Front. Plant Sci.

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“…To address these issues, researchers can employ spatial scenario modeling to predict future land cover, which, in turn, allows for the prediction of future ecosystem service values [24]. Several models have been developed and utilized for modeling and predicting future LC, including cellular automata (CA) [25], CA-Markov models [26], artificial neural networks (ANN) [27], and the conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extents (CLUE-Ss) models [28]. Notably, Liu et al [29] integrated the strengths of both "top-down" and "bottom-up" approaches to develop a geographic simulation and optimization system-future land use simulation (GeoSOS-FLUS) model, which was coupled with the Markov chain model and demonstrated unique functional advantages over other models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Multi-Scenario Simulation and Dynamic Assessment of the Ecosystem Service Values in Key Ecological Functional Areas: A Case Study of the Sichuan Province, China

Li,

Chen,

Zheng

et al. 2024

Land

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The ecosystem service value (ESV) is an important basis for measuring an ecological environment’s quality and the efficient management of ecosystems. It is particularly necessary to explore a proven methodology for assessing and predicting ESV dynamics coupled with policy-oriented scenarios that can provide a theoretical groundwork for macro decision, particularly in the context of implementing ecological protection and restoration projects. This study selected the land cover (LC) of Sichuan Province at five periods and the spatiotemporal dynamic equivalent factor method to assess the ESVs from 2000 to 2020. Additionally, the study coupled the Markov chain and GeoSOS-FLUS model, and predicted the future pattern of ESVs under four future development scenarios. The results show that (a) the areas of forests, shrubs, waters, wastelands, wetlands, and impervious areas showed a continuous increase from 2000 to 2020, with the most frequent interchanges occurring among croplands, forests, and grasslands. (b) The implementation of ecological protection and restoration projects led to a 13,083.32 × 108 yuan increase in ESV, and barycenter of the ESVs is located in the northeastern part of Ya’an and exhibits a tendency to move towards the northeast. (c) The ESV aggregation pattern of each city has remained unchanged, with Ganzi being the only city with a high aggregation. Overall, there are more conflict cities than coordination cities between economic development and the ecological environment. (d) The total ESV in 2025 will continue to increase under all development scenarios, reaching a maximum of 50,903.37 × 108 yuan under the EP scenario. This study can provide insights for ecological planning decisions and sustainable regional socio-economic development.

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“…In addition, the complex impact of land use and land cover change (LULC) on climate and weather is considered as a global environmental problem. [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact Assessment of Land Use and Land Cover Change of Agusan River Basin to Climate Using Geospatial Techniques And Regression Analysis

Aljon E. Bocobo,

Sheen P. Camatura,

Ann Marie G. Forcadas

et al. 2023

Proceedings of International Exchange and Innovation Conference on Engineering &Amp; Sciences (IEICES)

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This study utilizes Geospatial Techniques and Regression Analysis to examine the impact of Land Use and Land Cover changes on the climate dynamics of the Agusan River Basin. It analyzes the correlation between Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) over a 20-year period from 2000 to 2020 with four (4) years interval. The study reveals a gradual negative trend in the LST-NDVI correlation, with notable spikes in 2004 and 2008, influenced by extreme temperature conditions linked to drought and El Niño. However, the trend increased in the years following 2012. The dominant land cover types in the basin are vegetation, barren land, built-up areas, and water bodies. This study contributes to a better understanding of the relationship between land use and land cover, and climate dynamics, aiding informed decision-making for sustainable land management and climate change adaptation strategies in the Agusan River Basin.

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Evaluation of land use change predictions using CA-Markov model and management scenarios

Cited by 6 publications

References 30 publications

The effects of landscape change on habitat quality in arid desert areas based on future scenarios: Tarim River Basin as a case study

The effects of landscape change on habitat quality in arid desert areas based on future scenarios: Tarim River Basin as a case study

A Multi-Scenario Simulation and Dynamic Assessment of the Ecosystem Service Values in Key Ecological Functional Areas: A Case Study of the Sichuan Province, China

Impact Assessment of Land Use and Land Cover Change of Agusan River Basin to Climate Using Geospatial Techniques And Regression Analysis

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