IntroductionIn the context of climate variability, rapid and accurate estimation of winter wheat yield is essential for agricultural policymaking and food security. With advancements in remote sensing technology and deep learning, methods utilizing remotely sensed data are increasingly being employed for large-scale crop growth monitoring and yield estimation.MethodsSolar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is a new remote sensing metric that is closely linked to crop photosynthesis and has been applied to crop growth and drought monitoring. However, its effectiveness for yield estimation under various data fusion conditions has not been thoroughly explored. This study developed a deep learning model named BO-CNN-BiLSTM (BCBL), combining the feature extraction capabilities of a convolutional neural network (1DCNN) with the time-series memory advantages of a bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM). The Bayesian Optimization (BOM) method was employed to determine the optimal hyperparameters for model parameter optimization. Traditional remote sensing variables (TS), such as the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Leaf Area Index (LAI), were fused with the SIF and climate data to estimate the winter wheat yields in Henan Province, exploring the SIF’s estimation capabilities using various datasets.Results and DiscussionThe results demonstrated that the BCBL model, integrating TS, climate, and SIF data, outperformed other models (e.g., LSTM, Transformer, RF, and XGBoost) in the estimation accuracy, with R²=0.81, RMSE=616.99 kg/ha, and MRE=7.14%. Stepwise sensitivity analysis revealed that the BCBL model reliably identified the critical stage of winter wheat yield formation (early March to early May) and achieved high yield estimation accuracy approximately 25 d before harvest. Furthermore, the BCBL model exhibited strong stability and generalization across different climatic conditions.ConclusionThus, the BCBL model combined with SIF data can offer reliable winter wheat yield estimates, hold significant potential for application, and provide valuable insights for agricultural policymaking and field management.
