T he impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on Earth's vegetation and ecosystems have been in the spotlight of science in the past decades [1][2][3][4][5][6] . With increasing climate variability and more frequent occurrences of extreme events expected in the future 7 , research has targeted the sensitivity of ecosystems 8,9 . At the same time, recent studies have shown globally increasing leaf area index (LAI; a proxy for green vegetation cover) 10 , and aboveground biomass carbon (ABC) 11 , also known as the greening Earth 10,12 . Dynamic vegetation models and Earth observation studies reveal climatic and atmospheric changes as the main drivers of large scale increases in LAI 10,13 . On the contrary, the anthropogenic footprint is usually found to cause land degradation and deforestation 13,14 , and only a few studies find a direct positive effect of management on vegetation cover and biomass trends 2,11,15 . Although ecological conservation projects aim at increasing biodiversity, carbon sequestration and vegetation cover 16,17 , the success of such conservation efforts is not easily quantifiable, and the spatial footprint of projects is not always commensurable with contemporary satellite-and modelling-based monitoring methods. Adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change should be anchored in knowledge on how ecosystems respond to climatic and anthropogenic disturbances, but at present it is not known whether conservation projects impact on the ability of vegetation to alleviate the effects of climate change at large scales.China's ecological restoration projects (for example, the Natural Forest Protection Project, the Grain to Green Project, and the Karst Rocky Desertification Restoration Project) are considered 'megaengineering' activities and the most ambitious afforestation and conservation projects in human history [16][17][18][19] . The highly sensitive and vulnerable karst ecosystem in southwest China is one of the largest exposed carbonate rock areas (more than 0.54 million km 2 ) in the world. This area hosts 220 million people 20,21 and has been selected as a major target of restoration projects. Descriptions as early as the seventeenth century reported the rocky karst mountains as an area of sparse forest or vegetation cover 22 , and accelerating desertification has been reported during the past half century, caused by the increasing intensity of human exploitation of natural resources [21][22][23][24] . As a result, approximately 0.13 million km 2 of karst areas previously covered by vegetation and soil were turned into a rocky landscape. To combat this severe form of land degradation and to relieve poverty, more than 130 billion yuan (~19 billion USD) have been invested in mitigation initiatives since the end of the 1990s 24 . The largest programme implemented, the Grain to Green Project, offers grain, cash and free seedlings as compensation for rural households to re-establish forests, shrub and/or grassland 24 . The costs of ecological engineering projects as a clima...