Evaluation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and optimal strategies for containing the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Given multiple new COVID-19 variants are continuously emerging, non-pharmaceutical interventions are still primary control strategies to curb the further spread of coronavirus. However, implementing strict interventions over extended periods of time is inevitably hurting the economy. With an aim to solve this multi-objective decision-making problem, we investigate the underlying associations between policies, mobility patterns, and virus transmission. We further evaluate the relative performance of existing COVID-19 control measures and explore potential optimal strategies that can strike the right balance between public health and socio-economic recovery for individual states in the US. The results highlight the power of state of emergency declaration and wearing face masks and emphasize the necessity of pursuing tailor-made strategies for different states and phases of epidemiological transmission. Our framework enables policymakers to create more refined designs of COVID-19 strategies and can be extended to inform policy makers of any country about best practices in pandemic response.