Evaluation of onset, cessation and length of rainy season for sustainable rainfed crop production in Bihar

Sattar, Abdus; Khan, S. A.; Banerjee, Saon

doi:10.54302/mausam.v69i2.356

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 6 publications

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“…, west Africa monsoon(Rauch et al, 2019), Ethiopia(Segele & Lamb, 2005), Kenya(Sattar et al, 2018), Uganda(Ocen et al, 2021)among others, whether observed dataset or models simulations to assess the pattern in the future. Our analysis revealed that14-21 days delayed onset dates during MAM season observed over coastal counties (Kwale, Mombasa, Kili and Lamu) in Kenya, southwestern Ethiopia for JJA is which is similar to(Lupi Edao et al, 2018), while 21-35 days (2-5 weeks) delayed in western Uganda during DJF season.…”

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Changes and Variability in rainfall onset, cessation and length of rainy season in the IGAD region of Eastern Africa

Omay

Muthama

Oludhe

et al. 2022

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Rainfall Onset Dates (ROD), Rainfall Cessation Dates (RCD) and Length of rainy Season (LRS) are crucial for Crop production and food security in Eastern Africa yet scantily documented. This paper seeks to investigate the spatial patterns of these parameters. Data used are Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gridded temperature. Threshold of 0.1mm for rainy day, 20mm over 5 days with at least 3 rain days and dry spell not exceeding 7 days in the next 21 days were used to determine RODs, while Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) and Water Balance (WB) criteria were computed to determine RCDs then differences between ROD and RCD were used in calculating LRS. The results showed early rainfall cessation over more than 30 counties in Kenya lead to shortened rainy season by 10–20 days during MAM season. Similarly, 20–40 days early onset dates are observed in most counties in upper Nile, Unity and Jonglei states in South Sudan, while 20–40 days delayed rainfall onset was observed in Khartoum and southern parts of Nile state western Darfur, eastern and Aljazeera states in Sudan, most parts of Ethiopia and Eritrea districts during JJA season. Highlands of western and Nyanza region in Kenya, most parts of Uganda observed rainfall onset by March and no sign of cessation before November. Early cessation over northern Uganda districts was behind shortened LRS, furthermore, the early RODs over western and southwestern Uganda districts increased LRS. Prolonged dry conditions over northern Sudan, southeastern parts of South Sudan, northern Kenya, central Somalia, northern Darfour, Kordofan and northern parts of Sudan exacerbated by significant delayed onset and early cessation of rainfall. These findings are important for rain-fed agricultural planning and food security in the IGAD region of Eastern Africa.

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Changes and Variability in rainfall onset, cessation and length of rainy season in the IGAD region of Eastern Africa

Omay

Muthama

Oludhe

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Subseasonal Forecasts of the 2018 Indian Summer Monsoon Over Bihar

et al. 2019

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Calibrated probabilistic forecasts of weekly rainfall were developed for the state of Bihar in northern India and issued in real time during the June–September 2018 monsoon period, up to 2 weeks in advance. The forecasts are based on subseasonal forecasts from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction CFSv2 model and were calibrated against observed gridded rainfall fields from the India Meteorological Department using canonical correlation analysis. Hindcasts over the 1999–2010 period exhibit appreciable skill at Week 1 lead (Days 3–9), with some skill at Week 2 (Days 10–16), over Bihar as well as over a larger region. Forecasts were issued in real time during the 2018 Indian summer monsoon season for four districts in Bihar on a 1° grid in tercile probability format every Thursday. Verification of the district‐level real‐time forecasts over the 2018 season is evaluated and moderate skill demonstrated in terms of the Brier and Heidke skill scores, especially for the northern districts and for the below‐normal category. Successful monsoon onset and break phase forecasts in 2018 over Bihar are related to episodes of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, which the model is shown to capture quite well at 1–2 week lead.

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Evaluation of onset, cessation and length of rainy season for sustainable rainfed crop production in Bihar

Cited by 2 publications

References 6 publications

Changes and Variability in rainfall onset, cessation and length of rainy season in the IGAD region of Eastern Africa

Changes and Variability in rainfall onset, cessation and length of rainy season in the IGAD region of Eastern Africa

Subseasonal Forecasts of the 2018 Indian Summer Monsoon Over Bihar

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