Evaluation of Potential Impacts on Great Lakes Water Resources Based on Climate Scenarios of Two GCMs

Lofgren, Brent M.; Quinn, Frank H.; Clites, Anne H.; Assel, Raymond A.; Eberhardt, Anthony J.; Luukkonen, Carol L.

doi:10.1016/s0380-1330(02)70604-7

Cited by 134 publications

(107 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…In North America, potential reductions in the outflow of the Great Lakes could result in significant economic losses as a result of reduced hydropower generation both at Niagara and on the St. Lawrence River (Lofgren et al, 2002). For a CGCM1 model projection with 2°C global warming, Ontario's Niagara and St. Lawrence hydropower generation would decline by 25-35%, resulting in annual losses of Canadian $240-350 million at 2002 prices (Buttle et al, 2004).…”

Section: 1]mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[WGII 4.2] For a 2-3°C warming in the Columbia River Basin and British Columbia Hydro service areas, the hydro-electric supply under worst-case water conditions for winter peak demand will be likely to increase (high confidence). Similarly, Colorado River hydropower yields will be likely to decrease significantly (Christensen et al, 2004), as will Great Lakes hydropower (Moulton and Cuthbert, 2000;Lofgren et al, 2002;Mirza, 2004). Lower Great Lake water levels could lead to large economic losses (Canadian $437-660 million/yr), with increased water levels leading to small gains (Canadian $28-42 million/yr) (Buttle et al, 2004;Ouranos, 2004).…”

Section: Energymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Resistance and Resilience of A Stream Salamander To Supraseasonal Drought

2012

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Section: 1]mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Energymentioning

confidence: 99%

Resistance and Resilience of A Stream Salamander To Supraseasonal Drought

2012

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“…Many of the historical studies addressing this issue are based on the so-called Bchange factor^method, which is typically applied to a suite of models known as the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS; e.g. , Croley 1990;Hartmann 1990;Lofgren et al 2002;Angel and Kunkel 2010;Hayhoe et al 2010). The change factors in climate variables, typically derived from different Global Climate Model (GCM) projections, serve to perturb observed historical time series.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

et al. 2015

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Regional climate modelling represents an appealing approach to projecting Great Lakes water supplies under a changing climate. In this study, we investigate the response of the Great Lakes Basin to increasing greenhouse gas and aerosols emissions using an ensemble of sixteen climate change simulations generated by three different Regional Climate Models (RCMs): CRCM4, HadRM3 and WRFG. Annual and monthly means of simulated hydrometeorological variables that affect Great Lakes levels are first compared to observation-based estimates. The climate change signal is then assessed by computing differences between simulated future (2041-2070) and present (1971-1999) climates. Finally, an analysis of the annual minima and maxima of the Net Basin Supply (NBS), derived from the simulated NBS components, is conducted using Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Results reveal notable model differences in simulated water budget components throughout the year, especially for the lake evaporation component. These differences are reflected in the resulting NBS. Although uncertainties in observation-based estimates are quite large, our analysis indicates that all three RCMs tend to underestimate NBS in late summer and fall, which is related to biases in simulated runoff, lake evaporation, and over-lake precipitation. The climate change signal derived from the total ensemble mean indicates no change in future mean annual NBS. However, our analysis suggests an amplification of the NBS annual cycle and an intensification of the annual NBS minima in future climate. This emphasizes the need for an adaptive management of water to minimize potential negative implications associated with more severe and frequent NBS minima.

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“…It is noted that scenarios of climate change have typically been structured as percent change from the 1960-2000 period, as a means of establishing a baseline relative to, for example, the year 2050, the projected year in which there is considered the potential for a doubling of CO 2 in the atmosphere (e.g. after Lofgren et al, 2002). In this context, trend extrapolation of the historical data using the regression equations for each of precipitation, temperatures, and flows, are summarized in Tables 5 through 7, respectively.…”

Section: Comparison Of Historical Trend Projections and Gcm Predictionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From Table 5, if the trends apparent over the 1930-2000 time period continue, the predicted increases in precipitation with their uncertainties at the Lakes of Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario till 2050 are 4.1%±4.9%, 12.50%±4.5%, 10.9%±4.8%, 21.8%±8% and 19%±5 %, respectively. GCMs are being used to develop future scenarios under changed climate conditions (Mortsch et al, 2000). For illustration purposes, the GCM predictions for future changes in precipitation for Lake Superior, Lake Michigan and Lake Huron (the latter two combined to Michigan/Huron) from Lofgren (2002) are plotted in Fig. 5a and b.…”

Section: Prediction Of Precipitation Changes To Year 2050mentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America

McBean

Motiee²

2008

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In the threshold of the appearance of global warming from theory to reality, extensive research has focused on predicting the impact of potential climate change on water resources using results from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This research carries this further by statistical analyses of long term meteorological and hydrological data. Seventy years of historical trends in precipitation, temperature, and streamflows in the Great Lakes of North America are developed using long term regression analyses and Mann-Kendall statistics. The results generated by the two statistical procedures are in agreement and demonstrate that many of these variables are experiencing statistically significant increases over a seven-decade period. The trend lines of streamflows in the three rivers of St. Clair, Niagara and St. Lawrence, and precipitation levels over four of the five Great Lakes, show statistically significant increases in flows and precipitation. Further, precipitation rates as predicted using fitted regression lines are compared with scenarios from GCMs and demonstrate similar forecast predictions for Lake Superior. Trend projections from historical data are higher than GCM predictions for Lakes Michigan/Huron. Significant variability in predictions, as developed from alternative GCMs, is noted.

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Evaluation of Potential Impacts on Great Lakes Water Resources Based on Climate Scenarios of Two GCMs

Cited by 134 publications

References 16 publications

Resistance and Resilience of A Stream Salamander To Supraseasonal Drought

Resistance and Resilience of A Stream Salamander To Supraseasonal Drought

Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America

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