Evaluation of pre- and post-fire flood risk by analytical hierarchy process method: a case study for the 2021 wildfires in Bodrum, Turkey

Yılmaz, O.; Akyüz, Dilek Eren; Aksel, Murat; Dikici, Mehmet; Akgul, Mehmet; Yağci, Oral; Şanlı, Füsun Balık; Aksoy, Hafzullah

doi:10.1007/s11355-023-00545-x

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 81 publications

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“…Thus, burnt areas are more vulnerable to extreme peak flows [7]. Such effects have been explored from the perspective of identifying the driving factors of post-fire flood risks [8], and the post-fire hazards considering infrastructure sedimentation to hypothetical watersheds [9]. In the context of Mediterranean…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Representation of a Post-Fire Flash-Flood Event Combining Meteorological Simulations, Remote Sensing, and Hydraulic Modeling

Alamanos,

Papaioannou,

Varlas

et al. 2023

Land

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Wildfires are an escalating global threat, jeopardizing ecosystems and human activities. Among the repercussions in the ecosystem services of burnt areas, there are altered hydrological processes, which increase the risks of flash floods. There is limited research addressing this issue in a comprehensive way, considering pre- and post-fire conditions to accurately represent flood events. To address this gap, we present a novel approach combining multiple methods and tools for an accurate representation of post-fire floods. The 2019 post-fire flood in Kineta, Central Greece is used as a study example to present our framework. We simulated the meteorological conditions that caused this flood using the atmospheric model WRF-ARW. The burn extent and severity and the flood extent were assessed through remote sensing techniques. The 2D HEC-RAS hydraulic–hydrodynamic model was then applied to represent the flood event, using the rain-on-grid technique. The findings underscore the influence of wildfires on flooding dynamics, highlighting the need for proactive measures to address the increasing risks. The integrated multidisciplinary approach used offers an improved understanding on post-fire flood responses, and also establishes a robust framework, transferable to other similar cases, contributing thus to enhanced flood protection actions in the face of escalating fire-related disasters.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Representation of a Post-Fire Flash-Flood Event Combining Meteorological Simulations, Remote Sensing, and Hydraulic Modeling

Alamanos,

Papaioannou,

Varlas

et al. 2023

Land

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show abstract

“…These studies have laid the groundwork for metro flood hazard and risk assessment, but there are still many problems in this area. For instance, the AHP method has too many subjective aspects because the study is determined by the subjective decisions of experts [24], whereas the scenario simulation method requires a large amount of data and needs to be accurate [25]. The random forest model, on the other hand, requires a large amount of data and a high level of operation for the researcher.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geographic-Information-System-Based Risk Assessment of Flooding in Changchun Urban Rail Transit System

Liu

Zhang

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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The frequent occurrence of urban flooding in recent years has resulted in significant damage to ground-level infrastructure and poses a substantial threat to the metro system. As the central city’s core transportation network for public transit, this threat can have unpredictable consequences on travel convenience and public safety. Therefore, assessing the risk of urban flooding in the metro system is of utmost importance. This study is the first of its kind to employ comprehensive natural disaster risk assessment theory, establishing an assessment database with 22 indicators. We propose a GIS-based method combined with the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and an improved entropy weight method to comprehensively evaluate the urban flood risk in Changchun City’s metro systems in China. This study includes a total of nine metro lines, including those that are currently operational as well as those that are in the planning and construction phases, situated in six urban areas of Changchun City. In this study, we utilize the regional risk level within the 500 m buffer zone of the metro lines to represent the flood risk of the metro system. The proposed method assesses the flood risk of Changchun’s rail transit system. The results reveal that over 30% of Changchun’s metro lines are located in high-risk flood areas, mainly concentrated in the densely populated and economically prosperous western part of the central city. To validate the risk assessment, we vectorized the inundation points and overlaid them with the regional flood risk assessment results, achieving a model accuracy of over 90%. As no large-scale flood events have occurred in the Changchun rail transit system, we employed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to verify the accuracy of the flood risk assessment model, resulting in an accuracy rate of 91%. These findings indicate that the present study is highly reliable and can provide decision makers with a scientific basis for mitigating future flood disasters.

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A Multicriteria Decision Analytic Approach to Systems Resilience

Keisler,

Wells,

Linkov

2024

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

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This article develops a novel decision-oriented framework that strategically deconstructs systems resilience in a way that focuses on systems’ design, capabilities, and management. The framework helps evaluate and compare how system design choices impact system resilience. First, we propose a resilience score based on a piecewise linear approximation to a resilience curve. Using multicriteria decision analysis principles, we score system design alternatives in terms of system-specific capabilities. We estimate the relevance of these capabilities to resilience curve parameters associated with resilience phases. Finally, we interpret the derivatives of resilience with respect to the curve parameter values as the leverage of these parameters. Using multiple levels of weighted sums of the scores, we calculate the first order impact of system design choices first on a proxy for the generic resilience parameters and then on resilience, which allows situational characteristics to be incorporated in their natural terminology while mapping their impact on resilience with a traceable logic. We illustrate the approach by using existing materials to develop an example comparing engineered designs for minimizing post-wildfire flood impacts.

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Evaluation of pre- and post-fire flood risk by analytical hierarchy process method: a case study for the 2021 wildfires in Bodrum, Turkey

Cited by 7 publications

References 81 publications

Representation of a Post-Fire Flash-Flood Event Combining Meteorological Simulations, Remote Sensing, and Hydraulic Modeling

Representation of a Post-Fire Flash-Flood Event Combining Meteorological Simulations, Remote Sensing, and Hydraulic Modeling

Geographic-Information-System-Based Risk Assessment of Flooding in Changchun Urban Rail Transit System

A Multicriteria Decision Analytic Approach to Systems Resilience

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