Evaluation of prognostic markers in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2

Abstract

Prognostic markers are the biomarkers used to measure the disease progression and patient outcome regardless of treatment in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study aimed to analyze laboratory parameters as prognostic markers for the early identification of disease severity. In this study, 165 patients attending Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital with COVID-19 were enrolled and divided into severe and non-severe groups. The demographic data, underlying co-morbidities, and laboratory findings were analyzed and compared between severe and non-severe cases. The correlation between the disease criticality and laboratory parameters was analyzed. Cut-off values of parameters for severe patients were speculated through the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, and regression analysis was performed to determine the risk factors. Patients with severe COVID-19 infection had significantly higher absolute neutrophil count, neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet–lymphocyte ratio (PLR), ferritin, positive carbohydrate reactive protein (CRP), glucose, urea, creatinine, and aspartate aminotransferase, while lower absolute lymphocyte count, absolute eosinophil count (AEC), and red blood cell count in comparison to non-severe infection. ROC analysis gave a cut-off value (sensitivity, specificity) of age, AEC, NLR, PLR, and ferritin as 47.5 years (70.2, 64.7%), 335 cells/mm3 (74, 67%) 3.3 (68.4, 63.7%), 129 (77.2, 51%), and 241 ng/mL (74.0%, 65.0%) respectively. Risk factor analysis showed higher age, low AEC, high ferritin, and positive CRP as independent risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 infection. Hematological and inflammatory markers, including novel NLR and PLR, should be assessed to aid clinicians in the early identification of severe cases, prioritization of cases, and effective management to decrease the mortality of COVID-19 patients.