Evaluation of real-time flash flood forecasts for Haiti during the passage of Hurricane Tomas, November 4–6, 2010

Shamir, Eylon; Georgakakos, Konstantine P.; Spencer, Cristopher R.; Modrick, Theresa M.; Murphy, Michael J.; Jubach, Robert

doi:10.1007/s11069-013-0573-6

Cited by 28 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Such resolution can be provided for small and medium sized catchments by weather radar data (e.g., 1.5 km 2 and 3 min, Peleg et al, 2013) and for large catchments by satellite data (e.g., Nikolopoulos et al, 2010;Shamir et al, 2013).…”

Section: N Peleg Et Al: Modeling Convective Rainfall Sensitivity Tomentioning

confidence: 99%

A framework for assessing hydrological regime sensitivity to climate change in a convective rainfall environment: a case study of two medium-sized eastern Mediterranean catchments, Israel

Peleg

Shamir

Georgakakos

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract.A modeling framework is formulated and applied to assess the sensitivity of the hydrological regime of two catchments in a convective rainfall environment with respect to projected climate change. The study uses likely rainfall scenarios with high spatiotemporal resolution that are dependent on projected changes in the driving regional meteorological synoptic systems. The framework was applied to a case study in two medium-sized Mediterranean catchments in Israel, affected by convective rainfall, by combining the HiReS-WG rainfall generator and the SAC-SMA hydrological model. The projected climate change impact on the hydrological regime was examined for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, comparing the historical (beginning of the 21st century) and future (mid-21st-century) periods from three general circulation model simulations available from CMIP5. Focusing on changes in the occurrence frequency of regional synoptic systems and their impact on rainfall and streamflow patterns, we find that the mean annual rainfall over the catchments is projected to be reduced by 15 % (outer range 2-23 %) and 18 % (7-25 %) for the RCP4.5 sand RCP8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. The mean annual streamflow volumes are projected to be reduced by 45 % (10-60 %) and 47 % (16-66 %). The average events' streamflow volumes for a given event rainfall depth are projected to be lower by a factor of 1.4-2.1. Moreover, the streamflow season in these ephemeral streams is projected to be shorter by 22 % and 26-28 % for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The amplification in reduction of streamflow volumes relative to rainfall amounts is related to the projected reduction in soil moisture, as a result of fewer rainfall events and longer dry spells between rainfall events during the wet season. The dominant factors for the projected reduction in rainfall amount were the reduction in occurrence of wet synoptic systems and the shortening of the wet synoptic systems durations. Changes in the occurrence frequency of the two dominant types of the regional wet synoptic systems (active Red Sea trough and Mediterranean low) were found to have a minor impact on the total rainfall.

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Section: N Peleg Et Al: Modeling Convective Rainfall Sensitivity Tomentioning

confidence: 99%

A framework for assessing hydrological regime sensitivity to climate change in a convective rainfall environment: a case study of two medium-sized eastern Mediterranean catchments, Israel

Peleg

Shamir

Georgakakos

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…and for the case under examination (f > fT), (14) this may be used with a description of the statistical properties of the error  estimated for near full inundation conditions as discussed above to derive the statistical properties of the normalized correction BF for a given set of values of f and w. For normally distributed  the distribution of BF is also normal. The results show a normal distribution of the fractional normalized correction (see Equation (13) Taking the expected value of Equation (14) for the case of zero mean  yields the result:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This precipitation database was used to run a stand-alone adaptation of the Sacramento soil moisture accounting model for rainfall-runoff generation [14] used in the operational MRCFFG system for those watershed sub-basins within the NASA flood map tile. Parameters for sub-basin runoff generation were determined through the approach described in Duan et al [45].…”

Section: Data Opportunities and Constraintsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An example of these regional systems is described in Integrating Multiscale Observations of US Waters [13], whereby the basis of the first regional system implemented and operated since 2004 in Central America is discussed. System application is described most recently in Shamir et al [14]. The systems support the elements identified in WMO [15] for effective flash flood prediction and warning.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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MODIS Inundation Estimate Assimilation into Soil Moisture Accounting Hydrologic Model: A Case Study in Southeast Asia

2014

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Flash Flood Guidance consists of indices that estimate the amount of rain of a certain duration that is needed over a given small basin in order to cause minor flooding. Backwater catchment inundation from swollen rivers or regional groundwater inputs are not significant over the spatial and temporal scales for the majority of upland flash flood prone basins, as such, these effects are not considered. However, some lowland areas and flat terrain near large rivers experience standing water long after local precipitation has ceased. NASA is producing an experimental product from the MODIS that detects standing water. These observations were assimilated into the hydrologic model in order to more accurately represent soil moisture conditions within basins, from sources of water from outside of the basin. Based on the upper soil water content, relations are used to derive an error estimate for the modeled soil saturation fraction; whereby, the soil saturation fraction model state can be updated given the availability of satellite observed inundation. Model error estimates were used in a Monte Carlo ensemble forecast of soil water and flash flood potential. Numerical experiments with six months of data -December 2011 showed that MODIS inundation data, when assimilated to correct soil moisture estimates, increased the likelihood that bankfull flow would occur, over non-assimilated modeling, at catchment outlets for approximately 44% of basin-days during the study time period. While this is a much more realistic representation of conditions, no actual events occurred allowing for validation during the time period.

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“…The rainfall estimate is based on the Hydro Estimator algorithm that uses IR 10.7 µm measurements of brightness temperature at the cloud tops and associates them with rainfall rate. An attractive feature of the GHE precipitation product is its availability with short delay (less than 20 min), which makes it valuable for real time operational applications, such as flood warnings [59,60]. Hourly GHE precipitation data for this study are available since April 2012 (only for the last four selected events; see Table 1).…”

Section: Global Hydro Estimator (Ghe)mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Use of an Orographic Precipitation Model to Assess the Precipitation Spatial Distribution in Lake Kinneret Watershed

Shamir

Rimmer

Georgakakos

2016

Water

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Abstract:A high-resolution 3-D orographic precipitation model (OPM) forced by Climate Forecast System (CFS) reanalysis fields was developed for the Lake Kinneret watershed (Israel-Syria-Lebanon territories). The OPM was tuned to represent the interaction between the advected and stratiform rainfall, and the local orographic enhancement. The OPM evaluation was focused on the densely instrumented lower part of the watershed. To evaluate the ungauged upper-elevation, bias-adjusted precipitation estimates from the Global-Hydro-Estimator were used. The OPM simulates higher rainfall amounts in the upper-elevation watershed compared to currently used rainfall estimates from an elevation dependent regression. The larger differences are during rain events with southwesterly wind flow and high moisture flux. These conditions, according to the OPM, are conducive to enhanced orographic lifting in the Hermon Mountain. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the higher wind speeds for southwesterly-northwesterly trajectories generate significant orographic lifting and increase the precipitation differences between the lower and upper elevations.

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Evaluation of real-time flash flood forecasts for Haiti during the passage of Hurricane Tomas, November 4–6, 2010

Cited by 28 publications

References 21 publications

A framework for assessing hydrological regime sensitivity to climate change in a convective rainfall environment: a case study of two medium-sized eastern Mediterranean catchments, Israel

A framework for assessing hydrological regime sensitivity to climate change in a convective rainfall environment: a case study of two medium-sized eastern Mediterranean catchments, Israel

MODIS Inundation Estimate Assimilation into Soil Moisture Accounting Hydrologic Model: A Case Study in Southeast Asia

The Use of an Orographic Precipitation Model to Assess the Precipitation Spatial Distribution in Lake Kinneret Watershed

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