Evaluation of regional climate models and future wind characteristics in the Black Sea

Abstract

The main objective of the present study is to provide a comprehensive image of the expected wind patterns along the 21st century in the Black Sea using the wind fields simulated by Regional Climate Model (RCM), namely Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model (version RCA4). Long-term averages, long-term variability, and long-term trends in wind characteristics over the Black Sea are evaluated in two future time slices (near future 2021-2060 and middle future 2061-2100) under the two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). Detailed analysis of wind (annual mean and 99th percentile wind speeds) and storm characteristics (number and duration of storms) are conducted for three different locations selected on the same meridional section to assess the variability on the wind characteristics from west to east. Spatiotemporal variability on the wind characteristics indicates that the eastern Black Sea will be characterized by lower mean wind speed, stronger 99th percentile wind speed, and higher variability. Considering the global indicators of climate change (e.g., increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events), the eastern Black Sea, characterized by complex atmospheric circulation due to surrounding mountains, is more likely to be subjected to the impacts of climate change as the occurrence of extreme wind speeds in future periods is more prominent in this region. In the future periods, the 100-year return period wind speeds increase approximately 7% and 27% in the western and eastern Black Sea, respectively, compared to the historical period. The strong and relatively stable winds with low variability in the western Black Sea indicate a reliable, persistent, and sustainable wind energy potential in this region in the future.

Regional wave climate projections forced by EURO‐CORDEX winds for the Black Sea and Sea of Azov towards the end of the 21st century

“…The projected changes in the annual H s means (Figure 3b) are similar to the Islek et al (2022b) study results for 2061–2100 based on the RCP8.5 scenario, nonetheless, with differences concerning statistical significance arising in several locations, due to the distinct approaches between studies. The significant changes (at 95% confidence) in the annual means of T m show a higher similarity than that of H s in the two studies.…”

“…The significant changes (at 95% confidence) in the annual means of T m show a higher similarity than that of H s in the two studies. In Islek et al (2022b), changes are given directly as future and historical differences. If the projected changes were to be calculated as normalized differences, the values would be closer.…”

“…They also investigated future storms with a hybrid model considering the variabilities of other available GCMs to reduce the uncertainties in the future climate simulations using statistical methods. The most recently published study for Black Sea wave climate projections, Islek et al (2022b), presented wave projections based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the near (2021–2060) and mid‐future (2061–2100). Five RCMs were used in the study; however, the projected changes were analysed with the wave simulation that showed the best performance in the historical period.…”

Regional wave climate projections forced by EURO-CORDEX winds for the Black Sea and Sea of Azov towards the end of the 21st century

“…The signi cant changes (at 95% con dence) in the annual means of T m show a higher similarity than that of H s in the two studies. In Islek et al (2022b), changes are given directly as future and historical differences. If the projected changes were to be calculated as normalized differences, the values would be closer.…”

Assessment of Spectral Wave Model Performance Using Three Wind Speeds in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

“…This difference between the results of the two data sources may be due to both different temporal and spatial resolutions, and different data assimilation techniques (4D-Var using IFS Cycle 41r2 for ERA-5 vs 3D-Var for CFSR) (Islek et al, 2020). Quantile-Quantile (Q-Q) plot is widely used to evaluate the performance between the modeled and measured data (Aarnes et al, 2017;Christakos et al, 2019;Islek et al, 2022). Q-Q plots show different performances for different classes of the significant wave height and wave period.…”