Evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity in China based on variable weight model and grey-markov model: a case study of Anhui province

Abstract

Water security is not only an ecological environmental issue but also a bearing on national security and development. The study of water resources carrying capacity is the basis for future socioeconomic development and is the driving force for social progress. Therefore, it is important to investigate the influence factors of regional and national water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) and predict the future trend development. In view of the regional water resources data of the past 10 years in Anhui province, China, the Driving force Pressure State Impact Response Management (DPSIRM) model framework is constructed and the entropy weight method and variable weight theory can be used to make a comprehensive evaluation of the WRCC. Based on the comprehensive evaluation value, a modified Grey-Markov combination forecast can be introduced to predict the local WRCC in the coming years. The study on account of the Anhui Statistical Yearbook, the Water Resources Bulletin, and the water resources data of the Forestry Bureau for the past 10 years shows that the WRCC of Anhui Province is weak from 2010 to 2013 and gradually strengthens from 2014 to 2019; the WRCC of Anhui Province is mainly correlated with the impact subsystem, the management subsystem, and the state subsystem. The combined projections reflect that the future WRCC of Anhui Province is in good condition. It is recommended that the Anhui provincial government should strengthen water security and management, improve water resources utilization techniques, and construct complete and effective management tools and measures to fundamentally safeguard the province's water resources security and improve the WRCC.

Exploring the Evaluation of Ecological Security of Water Resources in the Yangtze River Basin under the Background of Ecological Sustainable Development

“…Meriem Naimi Ait-Aoudia(Ait-Aoudia & Berezowska-Azzag, 2016) conducted an assessment of WRCC to analyze the balance between domestic demand and water supply.In order to assess the WRCC of specific regions, the assessment factors were determined by evaluating the relevant factors of water usage and availability. The concept framework for assessing the capacity of water resource was developed derived from the supply-demand relationship.Lyu Yan and others, focused on the previous decade's regional water resource data of Anhui Province in China (Yan, Jiao, & Yongshi, 2023).They constructed a framework for the Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response Management (DPSIRM) model and conducted a comprehensive evaluation of WRCC using the entropy weight method and variable weight theory. Based on the derived comprehensive evaluation values and incorporating the modified Gray-Markov combined forecasting, they made predictions for the the coming years about the local WRCC.Chang Zhengqian, in 2020, discussed the concept and research methods of regional WRCC (Zhenggan, 2020).…”

Assessment of water resources carrying capacity using chaotic particle swarm genetic algorithm

“…The sustainable management and assessment of water resources have become critical issues in the progress of urbanization (Yan et al, 2023), and the assessment of WRCC has been repeatedly conducted to provide scientific suggestions for water resource management and sustainable development (Anamaghi et al, 2023;Zhou et al, 2023). The WRCC results could provide a reference for setting sustainable development goals, including population scale and economic criteria, and provide a basis for formulating appropriate improved water resource utilization and protection strategies.…”

“…Conflicts over water resources between humans and nature continuously increase in China as rapid economic growth and social development continue (Wang, Kai, et al, 2023;Yan et al, 2023), attracting researchers' attention. Discharge of water pollutants and exploitation of water resources pose a daunting challenge to the sustainable development of the economy and society (Jia et al, 2018;Jiang, 2009).…”

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resources-related challenges have become the most critical global challenge (Jia et al, 2020). According to the latest edition of the UN World Water Development Report (WWAP, 2019), an estimated 4 billion people will suffer from severe water shortages for at least 1 month each year, and 22 countries will be at risk of severe water stress.Conflicts over water resources between humans and nature continuously increase in China as rapid economic growth and social development continue (Wang, Kai, et al, 2023;Yan et al, 2023), attracting researchers' attention. Discharge of water pollutants and exploitation of water resources pose a daunting challenge to the sustainable development of the economy and society (Jia et al, 2018;Jiang, 2009).

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