Evaluation of surveillance thresholds for prediction of meningitis epidemics using ongoing surveillance data at the district level, in Niger

Chabalier, F. de; Hassane, A.; Chippaux, Jean-Philippe

doi:10.1016/s0035-9203(00)90308-0

Cited by 9 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…However, at least in some regions, the timing of onset and peak has been associated with the amplitude of epidemics (de Chabalier et al 2000). Several studies have related anomalies in amplitude to anomalies in climate.…”

Section: The Role Of Climate and Dustmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meningitis and climate: from science to practice

et al. 2014

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Meningococcal meningitis is a climate sensitive infectious disease. The regional extent of the Meningitis Belt in Africa, where the majority of epidemics occur, was originally defined by Lapeysonnie in the 1960s. A combination of climatic and environmental conditions and biological and social factors have been associated to the spatial and temporal patterns of epidemics observed since the disease first emerged in West Africa over a century ago. However, there is still a lack of knowledge and data that would allow disentangling the relative effects of the diverse risk factors upon epidemics. The Meningitis Environmental Risk Information Technologies Initiative (MERIT), a collaborative research-to-practice consortium, seeks to inform national and regional prevention and control strategies across the African Meningitis Belt through the provision of new data and tools that better determine risk factors. In particular MERIT seeks to consolidate a body of knowledge that provides evidence of the contribution of climatic and environmental factors to seasonal and year-to-year variations in meningococcal meningitis incidence at both district and national scales. Here we review recent research and practice seeking to provide useful information for the epidemic response strategy of National Ministries of Health in the Meningitis Belt of Africa. In particular the research and derived tools described in this paper have focused at "getting science into policy and practice" by engaging with practitioner communities under the umbrella of MERIT to ensure the relevance of their work to operational decision-making. We limit our focus to that of reactive vaccination for meningococcal meningitis. Important but external to our discussion is the development and implementation of the new conjugate vaccine, which specifically targets meningococcus A.

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Section: The Role Of Climate and Dustmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meningitis and climate: from science to practice

et al. 2014

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“…[4][5][6][7]20 Furthermore, ability of low thresholds to predict an epidemic improved early in the meningitis season, in the absence of a recent epidemic and in areas of population greater than 50 000. An epidemic was arbitrarily defined as an annual incidence of at least 100 cases per 100 000 inhabitants to enable comparison with other studies, 5,6,15 but threshold specificity was higher for predicting smaller, clinically important outbreaks. 11,21 In sparsely populated areas, small changes in the number of cases could cause major incidence fluctuations, and poor access to laboratory services might make bacterial identification difficult.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[6][7][8][10][11][12][13] Furthermore, the recommendation based on data collected in health facilities 5 did not account for under-reporting of cases through surveillance. The proposed threshold, therefore, has several disadvantages: it does not detect all epidemics; 5,6,15 it does not allow time to implement mass vaccination; 6 and its effectiveness is highly dependent on the quality of surveillance. 16 Detection of epidemic meningitis in areas of fewer than 30 000 inhabitants was not addressed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Timely detection of meningococcal meningitis epidemics in Africa

Lewis¹,

Nathan²,

Diarra³

et al. 2001

The Lancet

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“…The epidemic threshold that has been considered to be most appropriate (based, initially, on the analysis of an epidemic in Burkina Faso) is 15 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per week during two consecutive weeks [1,5]. The threshold has subsequently been revised as more data from different situations has been accumulated [73][74][75][76]. The reliability of epidemiological data, which depend on population size of communities, is an important factor in the reliability of threshold determination, and modern approaches introduce the concept of two levels of thresholds: alert and action.…”

Section: Control Of Epidemicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Control of meningococcal meningitis outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa

Chippaux

2008

J Infect Dev Ctries

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Outbreaks of Neisseria meningitidis recur frequently in the African Sahel where they are responsible for high mortality and morbidity, especially in children. An effective vaccine has been in existence for more than 30 years, but despite this, the control of epidemics has failed. Moreover, the geographical distribution of N. meningitidis seems to be increasing, perhaps because of climate change but also because of the economic crisis which prevails throughout much of Africa leading to population movements and the breakdown of essential services. Although alarming, the emergence of new serogroups in recent epidemics (such as serogroups X and W135) should not mask the fact that serogroup A remains the most common meningococcal isolate from meningitis cases and is therefore the most significant target for control. The development of a low-cost conjugate meningococcal vaccine should support a strategy of preventive immunization, as this strategy is one that appears most effective to control this plague.

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Evaluation of surveillance thresholds for prediction of meningitis epidemics using ongoing surveillance data at the district level, in Niger

Cited by 9 publications

References 4 publications

Meningitis and climate: from science to practice

Meningitis and climate: from science to practice

Timely detection of meningococcal meningitis epidemics in Africa

Control of meningococcal meningitis outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa

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