Objectives
Late HIV diagnosis (CD4<350 cells/mm
3
) is a key public health metric. In an era of more frequent testing there is greater likelihood of HIV diagnosis occurring during seroconversion, when CD4 counts may dip below 350. We apply a correction, considering markers of recent infection and reassess one-year mortality following late diagnosis.
Methods
We used national epidemiological and laboratory surveillance data on all persons diagnosed with HIV in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (EW&NI). Persons with a baseline CD4<350 were reclassified as “not-late” if they had evidence of recent infection (recency test and/or negative test within 24 months). A correction factor (CF) was the number reclassified divided by the number with CD4<350.
Results
Of the 32,227 people diagnosed with HIV in EW&NI between 2011-2019 with a baseline CD4 (81% of total), 46% had a CD4<350 (uncorrected late diagnosis rate): 34% of gay and bisexual men (GBM), 65% of heterosexual men, and 56% of heterosexual women.
Accounting for recency test and/or prior negative tests gave a “corrected” late diagnosis rate of 39% and corresponding CF of 14%. The CF increased from 10% to 18% during 2011-2015, then plateaued, and was larger among GBM (25%) than heterosexual men and women (6% and 7%, respectively). One-year mortality among persons diagnosed late was 329 per 10,000 after reclassification (an increase from 288/10,000).
Conclusions
The case-surveillance definition of late diagnosis increasingly over-estimates late presentation, the extent of which differs by key populations. Adjustment of late diagnosis is recommended, particularly for frequent testers such as GBM.