Evaluation of the ADViSOR project: Cross‐situational behaviour monitoring of high‐risk offenders in prison and the community

Abstract

Purpose. The release on licence of prisoners who have committed serious violent and/or sexual offences requires rigorous risk assessment and risk management. This study evaluates the ADViSOR project, designed to examine the contribution of prison behaviour monitoring to community supervision of a sample of the highest risk offenders released in England and Wales under Multi-Agency Public Protection Arrangements (MAPPA).Method. The offence-related behaviour of a total group (n = 25) of MAPPA prisoners in one prison, due for release in the following year to two adjacent probation trust areas, was monitored. Their behaviours in the community were followed up for 1 year. A comparison group (n = 36) was formed of the total number of MAPPA prisoners released from prisons nationally to the same two probation trusts.Results. The frequencies of ADViSOR negative behaviours in prison and the community were strongly correlated, r s (25) = .55, p = .004, as were positive behaviours, r s (25) = .56, p = .004. No statistically significant correlations were found either under usual MAPPA processes in the ADViSOR prison or comparison group prisons. The frequency of ADViSOR negative behaviours statistically significantly predicted, with 92% accuracy, the offenders who would reoffend or be recalled to prison (n = 8). Statistically significant similarities in types of behaviour were also identified. Conclusion.Results are discussed in terms of the contribution of behavioural monitoring to risk prediction with high-risk offenders, consistency of cross-situational behaviours, and implications for policy and practice.Prediction of reoffending is a major topic of psychological and criminological research, and research evidence has greatly enhanced the accuracy of offence prediction methodologies. Risk prediction has progressed from an early reliance on clinical judgement

Serious Offenders: Using Evidence to Predict and Manage the Risk

“…Our plan was to use the prison officers to collect the behaviours, and then use the prison‐based probation officers to harvest the data and take them to risk management meetings. The results are reported in full in the original publication (McDougall et al, ), but what now follows is a brief summary and discussion of these as an exposition of how clinical prediction can be improved by systematic observations of institutional behaviour in serious offenders.…”

“…In presenting the case we will discuss gaps that may be filled by a different kind of behaviour analysis, behavioural observation. Finally, an application of behavioural monitoring with serious offenders in England will be discussed as an example of this approach (McDougall, Pearson, Willoughby, & Bowles, ).…”

The relationship between aggressive behaviour in prison and violent offending following release

“…Research conducted by Clark, Fisher, and McDougall (1993) and more recently by McDougall, Pearson, Willoughby, and Bowles (2012) have noted the consistency of offence-related behaviour across community and custodial environments and provided evidence to support the use of behavioural monitoring as a supplement to risk assessment and management in long-term incarcerated offenders. Thus, further research may explore methods for identifying and monitoring idiographic patterns of behaviour in custody that may provide a more accurate reflection of an individual offender's level of risk for future offending than the use of official records of aggressive misconduct.…”

A Person-Centered Approach to Prison Behavior Based on Officers’ Observations: Relations to Risk, Prison Misconduct, and Recidivism

“…Lately, greater emphasis has been placed on risk assessment procedures that offer guidance to practitioners in the management and reduction of risk (4). Procedures that incorporate current prison behavior into risk assessment have been proposed to assist treatment planning, risk monitoring, and decisionmaking (5)(6)(7). This person-centered study proposes a feasible approach to identify meaningful subgroups of inmates based on their prison behavior.…”