The paper considers approaches to the analysis and prediction of the state of production and logistics systems of machine-building enterprises. The main groups of random events that occur during the operation of production and logistics systems and can have a significant impact on the implementation of the production program are systematized. Simulation modeling systems are analyzed: AnyLogic, Plant Simulation, PlantTwin. The functional capabilities of simulation modeling systems for setting random events are considered. A comparison of simulation modeling systems is carried out by the method of setting the distribution of a random variable and by the possibilities of accounting for random events.