Evaluation of the Effects of Price, Exchange, and Volume on the Growth of Revenues From Brazilian Exports of Wood Products

Abstract

Brazil has advanced in export volume but has not been able to increase prices over the last decade for wood products. This work seeks to contribute to the understanding of this conflicting scenario, evaluating the growth in the revenue of Brazilian exports of these products during two periods: 2011-2015 and 2016-2020, as well as decomposing its effects in price, exchange rate, and volume. The method applied was the shift-share, widely used to identify determinants of sectoral and regional economic growth, being a precursor to the approach in the analysis of forest sector exports. Historical series for 5 (five) categories of wood products were analyzed, with export data from the Ministry of Economy. The historical series of nominal exchange rates from the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) was used. The real effective exchange rate (RER) followed the methodological note of the IPEA. All product categories analyzed had positive effects in terms of volume, for both periods, with a greater proportion in the second being driven by the exchange rate, although with a loss in real price, failing to offset inflation. The only exception was wood manufacturers, a product with higher added value, which presented gains in volume, exchange rates, and price. The volume effect was the most relevant, followed by the exchange rate as a result of the appreciation of the dollar against the real against the exchange rate and control of inflation in terms of the divergent effects on the national and international scenario. The price presented negative variations in export revenue, with a decline over the period. In addition to the added value of exported products, world stocks and levels of consumption may have contributed negatively to this scenario, affecting all categories of exported products, except for manufactured wood products, the only category that did not reflect such justifications.

EFEITO PREÇO, QUANTIDADE E TAXA DE CÂMBIO NAS EXPORTAÇÕES BRASILEIRAS DE CELULOSE E DE PAPEL E PAPELÃO: UM OLHAR PARA OS PERÍODOS DE CRISE ECONÔMICA/Price, quantity and exchange rate effect on Brazilian pulp and paper and cardboard exports: a look at periods of economic crisis

“…Nesse sentido, o método diferencial-estrutural, conhecido também como shiftshare, foi utilizado inicialmente por Curtis (1972) para estudo de crescimento e desenvolvimento nacional e regional e tem sido mundialmente utilizado em vários setores da economia para decompor as exportações de um produto ou de um setor econômico nos efeitos câmbio, preço e quantidade, como no trabalho de Souza et al (2007), Wu e Jiang (2019), Pasaribu et al (2020), Montenegro e Costa (2021). Apesar do método shift-share ter sido muito utilizado em diversos setores da economia brasileira, principalmente na agricultura, no setor florestal no Brasil foi pouco aplicado, podendo citar os seguintes estudos: Soares et al (2010), Carvalho et al (2012), , Soares et al (2018), Santos et al (2019), Sawinski Junior (2023.…”