Evaluation of the Number of Visits to Chinese Medical Institutions Using a Logistic Differential Equation Model

Abstract

In this study, we established a two-dimensional logistic differential equation model to study the number of visits in Chinese PHCIs and hospitals based on the behavior of patients. We determine the model's equilibrium points and analyze their stability and then use China medical services data to fit the unknown parameters of the model. Finally, the sensitivity of model parameters is evaluated to determine the parameters that are susceptible to influence the system. The results indicate that the system corresponds to the zero-equilibrium point, the boundary equilibrium point, and the positive equilibrium point under different parameter conditions. We found that, in order to substantially increase visits to PHCIs, efforts should be made to improve PHCI comprehensive capacity and maximum service capacity.