Evaluation of the plug‐in hybrid electric vehicle considering learning curve on battery and power generation best mix

Abstract

SUMMARYThe plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) is a technology intended to reduce CO 2 emissions in the transport sector. This paper presents scenarios that show how widely used PHEVs will be in the future, how much CO 2 emissions will be reduced by the introduction of PHEVs, and whether there will be serious effects on the power supply system. PHEVs can run on both gasoline and electricity, and therefore we evaluate CO 2 emissions not only from gasoline consumption but also from electricity consumption. Consideration of the distribution of daily trip distances is important for evaluating the economical benefits and CO 2 emissions resulting from the introduction of PHEVs. Also, future battery costs are very important in constructing PHEV growth scenarios. The growth of the number of PHEVs will make battery costs lower. Thus, we formulate an overall model that combines the passenger car sector and power supply sector, taking account of the distribution of daily trip distances and incorporating a learning curve for battery costs. We use the iteration method to provide a learning curve that is nonlinear. Therefore, we set the battery cost only in the first year of the simulation: battery costs in the later years are calculated in the model. We focus on a 25-year time period in Japan, starting from 2010, and divided into 5 parts (1st to 5th). The model selects the most economical combinations of car types and power sources.