Mining of ore body in the vicinity of a shaft has a significant influence on its stability. The in situ monitoring and numerical simulation are employed to analyze the effect of shaft pillar extraction at Xincheng Gold Mine. The XI# ore body is recently found around and beneath the shaft, and mining in this area may be detrimental to the shaft. Firstly, on the base of geological survey and in situ displacement monitoring, mechanical parameters of rock mass are obtained and the displacement around the shaft is measured. Secondly, the sensitivities of five main factors that may affect the shaft displacement are analyzed by means of orthogonal experiment according to the numerical simulation with FLAC3D. Finally, a numerical model is established according to the in situ condition; in order to forecast the shaft displacement induced by mining activities of XI# orebody, the Mining Priority Index (MPI) is put forward and used to select the optimal mining sequence. Based on the comparison between the numerical results with the monitoring data, it is determined that the ore within 100 m from the shaft is not suggested to be extracted until the last period of the shaft life.