Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Basin Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios

Water supply failure probability under influence of climate change—Balsillas river basin case study

“…Likewise, a statistical downscaling method based on chaos theory was also applied, which relates the future climatology of the selected large-scale climate model to the local data at basin-scale obtained through climatological stations. The Chaotic Statistical Downscaling model (CSD), presented in [18] and evaluated in [1], is a new statistical downscaling method based on phase space reconstruction for different time steps, identification of deterministic chaos, and a general synchronization predictive model. We assessed the presence of deterministic chaos and the identification of the dynamic system movement type for different accumulation intervals by calculating the Lyapunov exponent for both the large-scale model and the local-observed system.…”

“…The CSD model has been used with relative success to predict both precipitation and temperature in different basins of Colombia, such as the Bogotá river basin and the Totaré river basin. As presented in [1] [18], the method was also compared with other downscaling techniques under three different error measures in these basins. The process continues by next using AQUATOOL Decision Support System (DSS) [19], specifically, the module for simulating water resource systems management (SIMGES) [20] and the module for risk management evaluation (SIMRISK).…”

“…It is related to human development, population growth, and consumption patterns; this phenomenon, whether natural or anthropogenic, can generate serious consequences for the environment and humanity. Therefore, to prevent and mitigate this phenomenon's negative impacts on the environment, including its effects on the hydrological cycle in a particular region, it is necessary to develop techniques with sufficient technical and scientific quality [1]. Water shortage conditions tend to impact the hydrological services offered by the Andean basins in South America, severely impacting the different sectors of existing populations, making it necessary for decision-makers to create innovative solutions at the basin level.…”