Evaluation of Two-Ship Collision Severity using Ordered Probit Approaches

Abstract

This study develops an ordered probit model to evaluate the factors influencing two-ship collision severity using ten years’ ship collision accident data from Fujian sea areas. The model results show that the involvement of big ships has the largest impact in increasing the probability of a serious or very serious accident, followed by the involvement of fishing vessels. There will be a bigger probability of a serious accident if both ships involved in the collision are cargo ships. We found that the season of spring, poor visibility and night time periods are more likely to be factors in high severity levels of ship collision. The results also reveal that lookout failure plays a decisive role in increasing serious accident risk compared with other types of human errors. The results of this study may be beneficial for policy-makers in proposing efficient strategies to reduce the likelihood of serious ship collisions.

Decision Tree and Logistic Regression Analysis to Explore Factors Contributing to Harbour Tugboat Accidents

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Figure 2.Conceptual framework for the analysis of harbour tugboat accident severity. References: Talley (1995, 1996, 1999a, 1999b), Jin et al (2001), Talley et al (2006, 2008), Jin (2014), Wang and Yang (2018), Weng et al (2018), Weng and Li (2019).

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“…As shown in the figure, ship type and ship size have been utilised in all studies. Talley (1995Talley ( , 1996Talley ( , 1999aTalley ( , 1999b, Jin et al (2001), Talley et al (2006Talley et al ( , 2008, Jin (2014), Wang and Yang (2018), Weng et al (2018), Weng and Li (2019). Accident area, accident time, accident type and weather condition are other highly used variables.…”

“…More specifically, the probability of serious accident in the open sea was found to be 79% higher than in port areas (OR = 0•56) and 56% higher than in restricted waters (OR = 0•64), such as river, channel etc. Similarly, Talley (1995Talley ( , 1996 and Weng et al (2018) suggested that the severity of marine accidents is lower in inland waters than open seas.…”

Economic Loss Analysis of Fishing Boat Collisions Considering Spatial-Temporal Interaction Effects

“…In general, historical accident records may contain more useful information (e.g. weather conditions, crew status) that might not be extracted from the AIS data (Talley et al, 2008; Kujala et al, 2009; Weng et al, 2018a). Using archived accident records, some researchers (e.g., Akten, 2004; Birpinar et al, 2009; Aydogdu et al, 2012) attempted to enhance navigational safety in the Istanbul Strait by analysing shipping accident risk in different ways.…”

“…These post-accident analysis studies can be divided into two groups in terms of the subjects of analysis. The first group focuses on the relationship between severity of injury in ship accidents and influencing factors (e.g., Jin, 2014; Weng et al, 2018a). The major focus of the second group is to assess the consequences of ship accidents such as injury or loss of human life (e.g., Jin et al 2001; Talley et al, 2006; Perez-Labajos et al 2009; Yip et al, 2015; Weng et al, 2016) and property damage cost (e.g., Talley et al, 2008; Weng et al, 2018b).…”