Evaluation of Uncertainty Associated to Analytical Water Injection Models by Assisted History Match and Probabilistic Techniques

Sandoval, Publio Alejandro; Carrillo, Edgar Ricardo Perez; Hernandez, Adriana Gomez; Ordóñez, Aníbal

doi:10.2118/133529-ms

All Days 2010

DOI: 10.2118/133529-ms

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Evaluation of Uncertainty Associated to Analytical Water Injection Models by Assisted History Match and Probabilistic Techniques

Publio Alejandro Sandoval

Edgar Ricardo Perez Carrillo

Adriana Gomez Hernandez

et al.

Abstract: Implementation of probabilistic methods, in the analysis of the reservoir variables allow obtaining more realistic models and identifying opportunities that generate greatest impact on the models.This finally leads to obtain better a developing plan, supported in ranked desitions. Colombian Petroleum Institute (ICP) in 2003 developed the methodology ASIA (Advanced System Analysis for Injection) wich is an adaptation of CGM technic for the analytical modeling of water injection.Within it Areal and vertical dist… Show more

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Systematic Uncertainty Analysis and Management in Waterflooding Development for a Large Sandstone Reservoir in Middle East

Tian

et al. 2017

SPE Europec Featured at 79th EAGE Conference and Exhibition

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For reservoir development study, there are a lot of uncertainties in different research aspects. But if these uncertainties are ignored, reservoir performance could be much worse than expected because of wrong development options possibly selected and applied. Therefore, uncertainty analysis should be addressed during reservoir development study, and uncertainty parameters should be analyzed and their impact should be evaluated in order to reduce the corresponding risks. The paper proposes that uncertainty analysis should run through the whole study process of reservoir development plan. Based on the reservoir development stage and reservoir geological features, all related uncertainty factors are identified. And the uncertainty range of each factor are determined with upside, expected and downside values or models. Then all factors are embedded into the static and dynamic models, and the uncertainty impact on reservoir performance are quantitatively evaluated based on the upside, expected and downside dynamic models respectively. After that, uncertainty parameters are ranked into differernt groups. Take one large multi-layered sandstone oilfield in Middle East for example, uncertainty analysis methods are illustrated. The large sandstone reservoir in Middle East is at its primary depletion development stage with only 5% recovery factor currently, and waterflooding is urgert. Firstly, key uncertainty parameters are determined, which can be mainly classified into two categoriesgeological model and dynamic model. Then according to the characteristic of this reservoir and uncertainties understanding of geological study, 3 static models with same probability are built. After that, uncertainties understanding of dynamic analysis are included into static models, and 3 dynamic models representing Upside, Expected and Downside models are generated in order to fully characterize all the uncertainties. So development options and development schemes optimization can be studied based on the 3 models in order to determine the uncertainties of water flooding performance. Finally the induced risks of each main uncertainty parameter are quantitatively evaluated, and corresponding treatments are proposed. This paper offers the methodology and a case study on uncertainty analysis and management within the waterflooding development for a large multi-layered sandstone reservoir, and the results are valuable for the following development options decision making. It also provides a reference for uncertainty management of similar reservoir.

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Systematic Uncertainty Analysis and Management in Waterflooding Development for a Large Sandstone Reservoir in Middle East

Tian

et al. 2017

SPE Europec Featured at 79th EAGE Conference and Exhibition

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Reservoir Simulation History Matching and Waterflooding Performance Forecast for a Large Sandstone Reservoir in Middle East

Song

et al. 2017

Day 3 Wed, April 26, 2017

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For the same reservoir geological model, different simulation models could be obtained through history match calibration by different engineers. In other words, there are certain uncertainties within the calibrated simulation models. So how to reduce the uncertainty during history matching is still a problem. This paper presents how to quantify the waterflooding uncertainty and reasonably forecast waterflooding performance through reservoir simulation for a large multi-layered sandstone reservoir in Middle East. Based on the results of detailed geological characterization, dynamic description and parameter uncertainty analysis, three fine geological models are built, which stand for upside model, expected model and downside model. Then parameter sensitivity on waterflooding performance is conducted based on sector model simulation, and waterflooding development strategies are also optimized. The results are firstly applied for the three full field model calibration by reservoir history matching. After that the calibration models are used for waterflooding performance forecast and the performance uncertainty are also quantified. Take a large multi-layered sandstone reservoir in Middle East as an example. The MU reservoir is still under primary depletion with only 5% recovery currently, and waterflooding is urgent. Firstly, sector models are used for parameter sensitivity analysis and development strategy optimization. Then based on parameter sensitivity analysis results, the three full-field model are all calibrated with good history match. And different model calibration need different parameter adjustment, such as downside model has stronger aquifer support than that of upside model and expected model because of the poorer connectivity. So different models show different characteristics, such as most of west-south flank of MU reservoir are flooded for Downside model, while only some local area and some zones are water flooded for Expected and Upside model. Then waterflooding performance of different development plans are forecasted and compared based on the optimum development strategies and calibrated models. Furthermore, the performance uncertainty are quantified based on the three models. This paper offers a methodology and a case study of reservoir simulation history matching in order to reduce uncertainty and better waterflooding performance forecast for a large sandstone reservoir in Middle East. Comparison of the three models can help to better understand the reservoir. And the results are valuable for the following development options decision making. It also provides a reference for performance forecast and uncertainty analysis of similar reservoirs.

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Evaluation of Uncertainty Associated to Analytical Water Injection Models by Assisted History Match and Probabilistic Techniques

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Systematic Uncertainty Analysis and Management in Waterflooding Development for a Large Sandstone Reservoir in Middle East

Systematic Uncertainty Analysis and Management in Waterflooding Development for a Large Sandstone Reservoir in Middle East

Reservoir Simulation History Matching and Waterflooding Performance Forecast for a Large Sandstone Reservoir in Middle East

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