Evaluation of Variations in Frequency of Landslide Events Affecting Pyroclastic Covers in Campania Region under the Effect of Climate Changes

Rianna, Guido; Reder, Alfredo; Mercogliano, Paola; Pagano, Luca

doi:10.3390/hydrology4030034

Cited by 24 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…In the present paper, for each RCP scenario, two different ensemble models E1 and E2 are proposed; the former only considering the set of significant MS models, the latter including all the M models in Table . The ensemble estimation is built by performing a weighted average of quantiles for a given return period T ; this was preferred to an equally weighted average to account for the different performance of climate models in reproducing historical observations, considering poorly‐performant hindcasts to be “less reliable” (Bhat, Haran, Terando, & Keller, ; Reder et al, ; Rianna, Reder, Mercogliano, & Pagano, ):

h_{E 1}^{d} ((), T) = \frac{\sum_{j \in italicMS} w_{j} \cdot h_{italicbc, j}^{d} ((), T)}{\sum_{j \in italicMS} w_{1 j}},

h_{E 2}^{d} ((), T) = \frac{\sum_{j \in M} w_{j} \cdot h_{italicbc, j}^{d} ((), T)}{\sum_{j \in M} w_{2 j}},

where w j is the weight associated to each model j , that should be selected as a metric representative of the “distance” between the observed and the current sample. Moreover, in Equation for

j \notin italicMS, h_{italicbc, j}^{d} = h_{obs}^{24}

.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)

Padulano

Reder

Rianna

2019

Hydrological Processes

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In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.

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h_{E 1}^{d} ((), T) = \frac{\sum_{j \in italicMS} w_{j} \cdot h_{italicbc, j}^{d} ((), T)}{\sum_{j \in italicMS} w_{1 j}},

h_{E 2}^{d} ((), T) = \frac{\sum_{j \in M} w_{j} \cdot h_{italicbc, j}^{d} ((), T)}{\sum_{j \in M} w_{2 j}},

where w j is the weight associated to each model j , that should be selected as a metric representative of the “distance” between the observed and the current sample. Moreover, in Equation for

j \notin italicMS, h_{italicbc, j}^{d} = h_{obs}^{24}

.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)

Padulano

Reder

Rianna

2019

Hydrological Processes

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“…In the latter case, a stochastic approach is coupled with biascorrected climate data to provide assessments at an hourly scale (adopted for the Ravello test case). Some studies (Reder et al, 2016;Ciervo et al, 2016;Rianna et al, 2017b) make use of expeditious statistical approaches referring to rainfall thresholds to assess slope stability conditions, while other studies employ physically based approaches (Damiano and Mercogliano, 2013;Rianna et al, 2017a).…”

Section: Previous Studies Of Flow-like Movements In Pyroclastic Soilsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal evolution of flow-like landslide hazard for a road infrastructure in the municipality of Nocera Inferiore (southern Italy) under the effect of climate change

Uzielli

Rianna

Ciervo

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In recent years, flow-like landslides have extensively affected pyroclastic covers in the Campania region in southern Italy, causing human suffering and conspicuous economic damages. Due to the high criticality of the area, a proper assessment of future variations in event occurrences due to expected climate changes is crucial. The study assesses the temporal variation in flow-like landslide hazard for a section of the A3 “Salerno–Napoli” motorway, which runs across the toe of the Monte Albino relief in the Nocera Inferiore municipality. Hazard is estimated spatially depending on (1) the likelihood of rainfall-induced event occurrence within the study area and (2) the probability that the any specific location in the study area will be affected during the runout. The probability of occurrence of an event is calculated through the application of Bayesian theory. Temporal variations due to climate change are estimated up to the year 2100 through an ensemble of high-resolution climate projections, accounting for current uncertainties in the characterization of variations in rainfall patterns. Reach probability, or defining the probability that a given spatial location is affected by flow-like landslides, is calculated spatially based on a distributed empirical model. The outputs of the study predict substantial increases in occurrence probability over time for two different scenarios of future socioeconomic growth and atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases.

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“…Since 1960, such slopes were affected by several RILs (1960RILs ( , 1972RILs ( , 1997RILs ( and 2005 entailing casualties and CIs interruptions/disruptions especially on the Naples-Salerno highway (Pagano et al 2010;Reder et al 2018). On such area, Reder et al (2016) and Rianna et al (2017a) provided an assessment of future variations of landslide activity under the potential CC effect using the climate simulation chain formed by the GCM (General Circulation Model) CMCC-CM dynamically downscaled through the RCM (Regional Climate Model) COSMO-CLM simulation at resolution of 8 km in the configuration optimized by CMCC for Italy (Bucchignani et al2015. Both works project a substantial increase in potential RILs occurrence even if adopting a single climate simulation chain realization does not allow assessing the uncertainties associated with such projections; however, the added value of this higher resolution model emerges in terms of performances for temperature and precipitation with respect to the current EURO-CORDEX high resolution models.…”

Section: Case Study Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing variations of extreme indices inducing weather-hazards on critical infrastructures over Europe—the INTACT framework

et al. 2018

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Extreme weather events are projected to be more frequent and severe across the globe because of global warming. This poses challenging problems for critical infrastructures, which could be dramatically affected (or disrupted), and may require adaptation plans to the changing climate conditions. The INTACT FP7-European project evaluated the resilience and vulnerability of critical infrastructures to extreme weather events in a climate change scenario. To identify changes in the hazard induced by climate change, appropriate Extreme Weather Indicators (EWIs), as proxies of the main atmospheric features triggering events with high impact on the infrastructures, were defined for a number of case studies and different approaches were analysed to obtain local climate projections. We considered the influence of weighting and bias correction schemes on the delta approach followed to obtain the resulting projections, considering data from the Euro-CORDEX ensemble of regional future climate scenarios over Europe. The aim is to provide practitioners, decision makers and administrators with appropriate methods to obtain actionable and plausible results on local/regional future climate scenarios. Our results show a small sensitivity to the weighting approach and a large sensitivity to bias correcting the future projections.

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Evaluation of Variations in Frequency of Landslide Events Affecting Pyroclastic Covers in Campania Region under the Effect of Climate Changes

Cited by 24 publications

References 57 publications

An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)

An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)

Temporal evolution of flow-like landslide hazard for a road infrastructure in the municipality of Nocera Inferiore (southern Italy) under the effect of climate change

Assessing variations of extreme indices inducing weather-hazards on critical infrastructures over Europe—the INTACT framework

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