Evaluation of weekly COVID-19 vaccination and case data supports negative correlation between incidence and vaccination in German federal states and cities during 4th wave

Springer, S.; Kaatz, Martin; Zieger, Michael

doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.04.015

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…We also found that, in the context of Germany, the vaccination takes its strong protective effect when at least approximately 40% of people are vaccinated. This result is consistent with those in Springer et al ( 22 ), which show a negative correlation between incidence and vaccination rate in Germany during the 4th wave where the vaccination rate is above 40%. Our findings are also in line with previous studies showing that COVID-19 vaccines are effective against severe forms of the disease ( 20 , 42 ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…They obtained that, the effect of vaccination in reducing the daily number of new infections, the total number of infections and the occupancy of intensive-care facilities in hospitals is proportional to the speed with which the target population are vaccinated. Springer et al ( 22 ) used linear regression on the 4th corona wave in Germany and showed that there is a negative correlation between the vaccination rate and the infection incidence. Campos et al ( 23 ) used a membrane computing model for simulating the efficacy of vaccines on the epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Lag-time effects of vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in German hospitals and intensive-care units

Lokonon

Montcho

Klingler

et al. 2023

Front. Public Health

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BackgroundThe Efficacy and effectiveness of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 have clearly been shown by randomized trials and observational studies. Despite these successes on the individual level, vaccination of the population is essential to relieving hospitals and intensive care units. In this context, understanding the effects of vaccination and its lag-time on the population-level dynamics becomes necessary to adapt the vaccination campaigns and prepare for future pandemics.MethodsThis work applied a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag linear model on German data from a scientific data platform to quantify the effects of vaccination and its lag times on the number of hospital and intensive care patients, adjusting for the influences of non-pharmaceutical interventions and their time trends. We separately evaluated the effects of the first, second and third doses administered in Germany.ResultsThe results revealed a decrease in the number of hospital and intensive care patients for high vaccine coverage. The vaccination provides a significant protective effect when at least approximately 40% of people are vaccinated, whatever the dose considered. We also found a time-delayed effect of the vaccination. Indeed, the effect on the number of hospital patients is immediate for the first and second doses while for the third dose about 15 days are necessary to have a strong protective effect. Concerning the effect on the number of intensive care patients, a significant protective response was obtained after a lag time of about 15–20 days for the three doses. However, complex time trends, e.g. due to new variants, which are independent of vaccination make the detection of these findings challenging.ConclusionOur results provide additional information about the protective effects of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2; they are in line with previous findings and complement the individual-level evidence of clinical trials. Findings from this work could help public health authorities efficiently direct their actions against SARS-CoV-2 and be well-prepared for future pandemics.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%