Evidence for a relationship between spring snow cover in North America and summer rainfall in New Mexico

Gutzler, David S.; Preston, Jessica W.

doi:10.1029/97gl02099

Cited by 100 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…He found a tendency for below-normal snowpack in the northwest and abovenormal snowpack in the southwestern United States during E1 Ni•os and an opposite pattern during La Ni•as. Gutzler and Preston [1997] found that wintertime precipitation in New Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship of ENSO to snowfall and related cyclone activity in the contiguous United States

Kunkel¹,

Angel²

1999

J. Geophys. Res.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship of ENSO to snowfall and related cyclone activity in the contiguous United States

Kunkel¹,

Angel²

1999

J. Geophys. Res.

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“…In turn, several investigations support the idea that this climatological gradient is modulated by complex lag-feedback effects that result from some combination of antecedent SST anomalies and/or snow cover and soil moisture conditions over southwestern north America (e.g. Gutzler and Preston, 1997). The second model posits that, during the Northern Hemisphere summer, the ENSO phase tends to modulate the mean position of the ITCZ in the eastern North Pacific such that during warm (cold) ENSO events the ITCZ is southward (northward) displaced (e.g.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 91%

Diagnosing warm‐season rainfall variability in Mexico: a classification tree approach

Englehart

Douglas

2009

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Many observational studies provide evidence that connects seasonal rainfall variations over parts of the subtropical and tropical Americas with the behaviour of large-scale climate modes. This paper extends these claims based on analysis of a fairly extensive historical rainfall data set from several locations in Mexico. The paper applies classification tree (CT) analysis to link warm-season rainfall variability to climate indices, which characterize ENSO state, the NAO, and sea-level pressure in the eastern North Pacific. While the results generally indicate that a significant part of the variability in warm-season rainfall over Mexico is conditioned by large-scale climate modes, there is only limited evidence of simple lag relationships involving Mexican rainfall and antecedent climate behaviour. The main implication here is that advances in warm seasonal rainfall prediction are likely to depend partially on improved capabilities to foreshadow the behaviour of large-scale climate modes a season or more in advance.

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“…Data for Arizona and New Mexico were chosen for analysis because the monsoon is relatively strong in these states. July/August precipitation data are used to represent monsoon precipitation based on previous studies (Gutzler and Preston, 1997;Gutzler, 2000;Lo and Clark, 2002).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies have attempted to predict monsoon precipitation on the basis of antecedent precipitation. Many of these studies illustrated an inverse relationship between winter precipitation in the southwestern US and monsoon precipitation (Carleton and Carpenter, 1990;Gutzler and Preston, 1997;Higgins and Shi, 2000;Gutzler, 2000;Hu and Feng, 2003;Lo and Clark, 2002). Winters with above-average precipitation are generally followed by below-average monsoon precipitation and vice versa.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, there is a delay in the warming of the region during summer months that results in a reduction in the large-scale land-ocean temperature contrasts that drive monsoon formation (hereafter referred to as winter/monsoon precipitation relations) (Lo and Clark, 2002;Hu and Feng, 2004). Because of the strong relation between the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and winter precipitation in the southwestern US (Redmond and Koch, 1991), ENSO also has been suggested to be a significant influence on the magnitude of monsoon precipitation in the southwestern US (Gutzler and Preston, 1997;Hu and Feng, 2002;Hu and Feng, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Shifting covariability of North American summer monsoon precipitation with antecedent winter precipitation

McCabe¹,

Clark²

2006

Int. J. Climatol.

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Previous research has suggested that a general inverse relation exists between winter precipitation in the southwestern United States (US) and summer monsoon precipitation. In addition, it has been suggested that this inverse relation between winter precipitation and the magnitude of the southwestern US monsoon breaks down under certain climatic conditions that override the regional winter/monsoon precipitation relations. Results from this new study indicate that the winter/monsoon precipitation relations do not break down, but rather shift location through time. The strength of winter/monsoon precipitation relations, as indexed by 20-year moving correlations between winter precipitation and monsoon precipitation, decreased in Arizona after about 1970, but increased in New Mexico. The changes in these correlations appear to be related to an eastward shift in the location of monsoon precipitation in the southwestern US. This eastward shift in monsoon precipitation and the changes in correlations with winter precipitation also appear to be related to an eastward shift in July/August atmospheric circulation over the southwestern US that resulted in increased monsoon precipitation in New Mexico. Results also indicate that decreases in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central North Pacific Ocean also may be associated with the changes in correlations between winter and monsoon precipitation.

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Evidence for a relationship between spring snow cover in North America and summer rainfall in New Mexico

Cited by 100 publications

References 17 publications

Relationship of ENSO to snowfall and related cyclone activity in the contiguous United States

Relationship of ENSO to snowfall and related cyclone activity in the contiguous United States

Diagnosing warm‐season rainfall variability in Mexico: a classification tree approach

Shifting covariability of North American summer monsoon precipitation with antecedent winter precipitation

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