Evidence for a volcanic underpinning of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

Birkel, S. D.; Mayewski, Paul Andrew; Maasch, Kirk A.; Kurbatov, Andrei; Lyon, Bradfield

doi:10.1038/s41612-018-0036-6

Cited by 48 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Scatterplots of the JJA seasonal rainfall and the derived climate indices are displayed for the period from 1979 to 2018 as Figure S1 in the supporting information. A similar linkage has been found between the East Asian monsoon and North Atlantic Oscillation, in the existing studies, which is partly responsible for a complex interannual and interdecadal variability involving atmospheric teleconnections (Andrews et al, 2015;Birkel et al, 2018;Yim et al, 2014;Zhang et al, 2019).…”

Section: 1029/2019gl085418supporting

confidence: 86%

A Multiscale Precipitation Forecasting Framework: Linking Teleconnections and Climate Dipoles to Seasonal and 24‐hr Extreme Rainfall Prediction

Kim

Kwon

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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We develop a hybrid statistical forecasting model for the simultaneous season‐ahead forecasting of both seasonal rainfall and the 24‐hr maximum rainfall for the upcoming season, using predictors identified through the Shared Reciprocal Nearest Neighbor approach. The model uses a generalized linear regression and a four‐parameter Beta distribution model for downscaling extremes using the predictors that were identified. A cross‐validation experiment for the last four decades in both Han‐River and Geum‐River watersheds, South Korea was performed to test the efficacy of the model. The leave‐one‐out cross‐validated seasonal precipitation forecast demonstrates a correlation that ranges from 0.69–0.78 to 0.68–0.76 for the Han‐River and Geum‐River watershed, respectively. Similarly, for the 24‐hr maximum rainfalls in the upcoming season, the cross‐validated correlations between the predicted and the observed values range from 0.67–0.73 to 0.50–0.63, for the two river basins. A discussion of the potential causes of the skill is offered.

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Section: 1029/2019gl085418supporting

confidence: 86%

A Multiscale Precipitation Forecasting Framework: Linking Teleconnections and Climate Dipoles to Seasonal and 24‐hr Extreme Rainfall Prediction

Kim

Kwon

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Hurrell [28] and Hurrell and Deser [29] also invoke the internal, nonlinear dynamics of the extratropical atmosphere. There are also suggestions that volcanism may drive, or nudge, ocean oscillations, e.g., Birkel, Mayewski [30] on the AMO.…”

Section: Methods To Identify Ocean Oscillations and Their Lead-lag Rementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Clement, Bellomo [25], O'Reilly et al [64], and Trenary and DelSole [65] discuss causal relations between the AMO and the AMOC. A generic overview of climate variability and the relations between ocean variability (oscillation) time series are given by Cassou et al [66] Birkel, Mayewski [30] found that the AMO is driven by volcanic eruptions. However, Seip and Gron [34] show that there are synchronized and changing LL-relations between the NAO, the Southern oscillation index (SOI) and the PDO after about 1920.…”

Section: Relations Between the Nao The Amo And The Amocmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Ocean Dynamics in the North Atlantic: Achievements and Challenges

Seip

2020

Climate

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I address 12 issues related to the study of ocean dynamics and its impact on global temperature change, regional and local climate change, and on the North Atlantic ecosystem. I outline the present achievements and challenges that lie ahead. I start with observations and methods to extend the observations of ocean oscillations over time and end with challenges to find connections between ocean dynamics in the North Atlantic and dynamics in other parts of the globe.

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“…The shift to negative phases in the AMO have often been associated with volcanic eruptions (Birkel et al, 2018;Swingedouw et al, 2017) but this earlier cooling preceded the 1902 eruptions. The shift in Dec 1925 was preceded by shifts in SST that may have originated in the high northern latitudes, but were certainly oceanic.…”

Section: Atlantic Meridional Oscillationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Pacific Ocean heat engine: global climate's regulator

Jones

Ricketts

2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Climate change is routinely represented as a smoothly changing signal surrounded by statistical noise. However, on decadal timescales, warming proceeds as a sequence of steady-state regimes punctuated by abrupt shifts. Here we present evidence that this process is regulated by a heat engine spanning the tropical Pacific Ocean. The eastern-central Pacific maintains steady-state conditions, collecting heat and delivering it to the Western Pacific warm pool. This acts as distributor, transporting heat upwards and to the poles. The heat engine is networked within the climate system, linking different oscillations and circulations as heat energy is dissipated. The process is self-regulating. Steady-state regimes will persist until they become unstable and need more or less power depending on the direction of forcing. Under greenhouse gas forcing, shifts initiated within the heat engine propagate broadly across the shallow ocean, followed by warming over land and at higher latitudes. The heat engine was in free mode during the early 20th century, dominated by decadal variability. From the 1960s, it switched into forced mode, initiating a stepladder-like pattern of warming in regional and global climate. The most recent shift commenced in the warm pool in December 2012, ending the so-called hiatus (1997–2013). During 2014–15, surface temperatures warmed abruptly by ~ 0.25 °C globally and > 0.5 °C over northern hemisphere land and high latitudes. With increasing forcing, the heat engine will shift more frequently. Rapid decreases in greenhouse gas emissions will slow the process and potentially, could stabilise it. Managing unavoidable change requires developing the capacity to predict shifts in advance. Planning for rapid changes in extreme events is an urgent priority.

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Evidence for a volcanic underpinning of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

Cited by 48 publications

References 42 publications

A Multiscale Precipitation Forecasting Framework: Linking Teleconnections and Climate Dipoles to Seasonal and 24‐hr Extreme Rainfall Prediction

A Multiscale Precipitation Forecasting Framework: Linking Teleconnections and Climate Dipoles to Seasonal and 24‐hr Extreme Rainfall Prediction

A Review of Ocean Dynamics in the North Atlantic: Achievements and Challenges

The Pacific Ocean heat engine: global climate's regulator

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